BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Several of our Eastern Corn Belt clients informed us yesterday afternoon and evening that the wind on the wet corn stalks really knocked a lot of corn down late Friday to Saturday morning. Bob told us the Case IH dealer in Urbana of Champaign County, Ohio sold two corn reels yesterday morning.       Soybean yields from about a dozen farms in northeast Illinois range from 25.4 to 65.1. Three in the 20's, one 39 bu, three in the 40's, one 53.7, and two in the 60's. T

Highlights The Federal Reserve reduced the Fed Fund Interest Rate by 50 basis points. Eleven or the 12 board members voted to reduce the interest rate by a half percent. The outlook closing said the Fed expects to reduce the interest rate at least another half percent before the end of 2024.   The Fed referenced the growth of the global and US economy is stable, inflation is coming down, and the labor market is still solid. Powell said the half point cut should send a message

Highlights Today at 1 PM Central the Federal Reserve will announce its decision about an interest rate cut. The market has priced-in a 35% probability of a 25 basis point cut (¼%) and 65% probability of a 50 basis point (½%) cut. We think the market is overly optimistic based on the facts of inflation versus job creation. If the Fed wants to play politics, they will go with a half percent cut or maybe a 75 basis point cut, which would be bullish commodities and the equity mar

Highlights The US CPI data (inflation at retail level) for August +0.2% as expected. For the past 12 months, the CPI was up 2.5%, slightly less than the expected 2.6%. However, what the government calls the “core” CPI was up 0.3% in August, which was more than the expected 0.2% and core inflation was up 3.2% for the past 12 months, which was as expected, but well above the Fed’s target of 2%.   As a result of the CPI numbers, the interest rate markets show the odds of a half

Highlights A developing tropical storm that is expected to track through the Gulf of Mexico and hit parts of Texas and Louisiana by Thursday will hit 60% of the US refining capacity and a large percentage of off-shore drilling and pumping platforms.   Colombian rebels have renewed their war on that nation’s oil industry with a wave of pipeline attacks that sent crude spilling into rivers and clouds of black smoke billowing into the sky. The National Liberation Army is reactiv

Highlights Crude oil was supported yesterday by Saudi Arabia's decision to recommend OPEC+ postpone production increase in October. However, the worldwide doom and gloom crowd continues to bad-mouth crude oil demand.   China requested the US immediately lift the tariffs on Chinese goods. Reuters News reports President Biden is expected to decide in the coming days about increasing tariffs on Chinese products.    French wheat growers’ group predicts their soft wheat production

Highlights On Tuesday, China hit Canada with an anti-dumping probe on canola after Canada imposed 100% tariffs on China’s electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on China’s aluminum. Canola November futures traded down the $45 per mt limit on Tuesday and settled down $23.80. Yesterday, canola stayed above Tuesday’s low, but settled down another $11.20.   Many analysts are saying this could be a trick that China likes to do to drop the prices of a commodity before making a purchase

Highlights Libya has yet to resume oil exports one week after the Haftar clan blocked production in a bid to gain leverage over a battle to control the Central Bank. Six engineers told the Pan-Arab newspaper that exports remained halted at six ports although some production was being increased to feed local power generation and ease fuel shortages.   According to S&P Global, up to 230,000 barrels per day of crude output has been restored at three eastern fields under the cont

Highlights Most markets except financials will be closed on Monday, September 2, due to the Labor Day holiday. Trade will resume Monday evening. The U.S. Department of Commerce revised second quarter GDP up 0.2% to +3.0% of growth. GDP in the first quarter of 2024 was +1.4%. Consumer spending rose 2.9% in the second quarter versus 1.5% in the first quarter 2024. U.S. jobs figures yesterday show the number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits slipped last week, bu

Highlights Canada’s government has ordered Canada’s railways and workers’ union to get back to work on Friday. Union members went to work yesterday, but it will take several days to get back up and running smoothly.   The BNSF has halted grain shuttle trains to Mexico for 3 days due to ongoing congestion and service interruptions that have resulted in equipment being held in Mexico, according to BNSF and USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service. This could end up being a huge hi

Highlights ProFarmer Tour results and comments by Reuters’ Karen Braun: Minnesota corn yield at 164.9 bu/acre, the tour's lowest since 2012 and down 9% from 2023. USDA has MN corn yield unchanged year-on-year. Pod counts for soybeans were near the 3-year average. “10 stops along my route in southwest Minnesota. Not a single corn field looked good from the road, and that largely held true inside. Corn was yellow and uneven everywhere.”   Iowa corn yield at 192.79 bu/acre, a to

Highlights ProFarmer Tour 2024 results for Illinois were up 5.4% year-on-year, topping the old tour high of 196.96 from 2014. USDA sees it up 9%. Pod counts for soybeans were the tour's highest since 2000 and up nearly 12% the previous year. USDA has up 5%.  Three districts of Iowa show mostly strong potential in western Iowa. But NW corn yields were the tour's lowest since at least 2016, too much early rain. Arlen Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist for StoneX, commented:

Highlights Pro Farmer Nebraska corn yield is up from last year but below 2021's 182.35 record yield. Pod counts for soybeans are a 3 year high though below the 1200+ pods seen in 2018-2021. PFT member Ted Seifried said after 7th stop in Butter Co, Nebraska: “I have been seeing ear worms on almost every stop of the tour but they seem to be getting worse. The yield check on this field was 230.9’ but I also calculated an average of 70 ear worms in a 30’ row.”   Pro Farmer Indian

Highlights After gaining more than $3 on Monday, then losing $2.62 the next two days before gaining $1.15 on Thursday, crude oil prices fell more than $2.50 before recovering about a buck on Friday when China's Premier Li Qiang said great efforts must be made to boost the faltering economy. China’s economic data Friday morning (on Thursday night Eastern time) showed China's economy had “lost momentum” with new home prices falling at the fastest pace in nine years, industrial

Question from a client, received 8:01 PM Thursday 1 August 2024: "Hey Roger,   We just got a quick localized, well-needed 1 inch of rain so things are much better than yesterday's hot dry windy conditions.   I am not a conspiracy theorist by no means with what is and has been happening in Europe with the gov't trying to regulate and put farmers out of business and what we have seen in the grain market and what you wrote today, "Altogether, yesterday, crude oil was sharply hig

Highlights On Wednesday, a giddy euphoria about the US economy prevailed on the “certain” prospects for lower interest rates in September. Thursday morning, the U.S. jobs data showed 114,000 jobs were added in July; the market expected 176,000. Worse yet, the June new jobs number was revised lower from 206,000 to 179,000 and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3%, up 0.2%. That was the largest one month increase in many years. Suddenly, the giddy euphoria turned to gloom and do

Highlights The Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, said the Fed may be ready to reduce interest in September as recent data added to their confidence that inflation is coming into line with their 2% target. Stock indexes screamed higher on that expectation and the dollar was sharply weaker. The tough-talking face of the HAMAS’ international diplomacy crew, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed Wednesday morning in Iran. He had a major hand in building up Hamas' fighting capacity an

Highlights The Commerce Department reported yesterday morning the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, edged 0.1% higher last month after being unchanged in May, matching market expectations. The data likely sets the stage for the Fed to begin cutting rates in September, as the market widely expects.   In the 12 months ending in June, the PCE price index climbed 2.5%, down from 2.6% in May.   The inflation news

Highlights August options expire tomorrow, Friday, July 26. First notice day for August futures is July 31.   Yesterday morning, the US Government reported a revision of the second quarter GDP of +2.8%; the market expected a +2.1%. The first quarter GDP had been disappointing at +1.4%. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is a measure of consumer spending on goods and services among households. For the second quarter, PCE rate was up 2.6%, down from 3.4% in the first quart

Tidbits The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Indexes were down on Wednesday and had its worst day since late 2022 due to a selloff in high-flying technology stocks. The S&P slid 2.3%, with Tesla shares plunging 12% in the biggest drop since September 2020. The Nasdaq 100 was about 3.7% lower due to Google’s YouTube advertising revenue weakness.   Eduardo Vanin wrote on Wednesday: "Soybean premiums (basis)  FOB Paranaguá and CFR China surged 30 to 40 cents per bushel in just a few days. Far