BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights ProFarmer Tour 2024 results for Illinois were up 5.4% year-on-year, topping the old tour high of 196.96 from 2014. USDA sees it up 9%. Pod counts for soybeans were the tour's highest since 2000 and up nearly 12% the previous year. USDA has up 5%.  Three districts of Iowa show mostly strong potential in western Iowa. But NW corn yields were the tour's lowest since at least 2016, too much early rain. Arlen Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist for StoneX, commented:

Highlights Pro Farmer Nebraska corn yield is up from last year but below 2021's 182.35 record yield. Pod counts for soybeans are a 3 year high though below the 1200+ pods seen in 2018-2021. PFT member Ted Seifried said after 7th stop in Butter Co, Nebraska: “I have been seeing ear worms on almost every stop of the tour but they seem to be getting worse. The yield check on this field was 230.9’ but I also calculated an average of 70 ear worms in a 30’ row.”   Pro Farmer Indian

Highlights After gaining more than $3 on Monday, then losing $2.62 the next two days before gaining $1.15 on Thursday, crude oil prices fell more than $2.50 before recovering about a buck on Friday when China's Premier Li Qiang said great efforts must be made to boost the faltering economy. China’s economic data Friday morning (on Thursday night Eastern time) showed China's economy had “lost momentum” with new home prices falling at the fastest pace in nine years, industrial

Question from a client, received 8:01 PM Thursday 1 August 2024: "Hey Roger,   We just got a quick localized, well-needed 1 inch of rain so things are much better than yesterday's hot dry windy conditions.   I am not a conspiracy theorist by no means with what is and has been happening in Europe with the gov't trying to regulate and put farmers out of business and what we have seen in the grain market and what you wrote today, "Altogether, yesterday, crude oil was sharply hig

Highlights On Wednesday, a giddy euphoria about the US economy prevailed on the “certain” prospects for lower interest rates in September. Thursday morning, the U.S. jobs data showed 114,000 jobs were added in July; the market expected 176,000. Worse yet, the June new jobs number was revised lower from 206,000 to 179,000 and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3%, up 0.2%. That was the largest one month increase in many years. Suddenly, the giddy euphoria turned to gloom and do

Highlights The Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, said the Fed may be ready to reduce interest in September as recent data added to their confidence that inflation is coming into line with their 2% target. Stock indexes screamed higher on that expectation and the dollar was sharply weaker. The tough-talking face of the HAMAS’ international diplomacy crew, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed Wednesday morning in Iran. He had a major hand in building up Hamas' fighting capacity an

Highlights The Commerce Department reported yesterday morning the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, edged 0.1% higher last month after being unchanged in May, matching market expectations. The data likely sets the stage for the Fed to begin cutting rates in September, as the market widely expects.   In the 12 months ending in June, the PCE price index climbed 2.5%, down from 2.6% in May.   The inflation news

Highlights August options expire tomorrow, Friday, July 26. First notice day for August futures is July 31.   Yesterday morning, the US Government reported a revision of the second quarter GDP of +2.8%; the market expected a +2.1%. The first quarter GDP had been disappointing at +1.4%. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is a measure of consumer spending on goods and services among households. For the second quarter, PCE rate was up 2.6%, down from 3.4% in the first quart

Tidbits The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Indexes were down on Wednesday and had its worst day since late 2022 due to a selloff in high-flying technology stocks. The S&P slid 2.3%, with Tesla shares plunging 12% in the biggest drop since September 2020. The Nasdaq 100 was about 3.7% lower due to Google’s YouTube advertising revenue weakness.   Eduardo Vanin wrote on Wednesday: "Soybean premiums (basis)  FOB Paranaguá and CFR China surged 30 to 40 cents per bushel in just a few days. Far

S&P Futures We have often mentioned that selling cash corn, beans, or wheat and replacing it with a futures or options position of that same commodity often is not the best strategy at the time.       The reason to re-own a commodity is to make money. Often, the best opportunity, the best risk/reward ratio to make money with futures or options is with a different commodity than the commodity just sold.   We have clients who bought cocoa puts in the spring, wheat puts in May,

Highlights The USDA lowered old corn carryout 120 million bushels below the lowest estimate by increasing feed use and exports both by 75 million bushels each. Old crop corn imports were increased by 5 million so the carryout was lowered by 145 million to 1,877 million bushels.   New crop corn feed demand was also increased by 75 million bushels and exports were increased 25 million. The new crop production increase of 240 million bushels from additional corn acres was more t

Highlights Dr. Cordonnier left his yield and production estimates unchanged for US corn and beans.   French Ag ministry first production estimate of the year say's France's wheat production will be 15% less than a year ago due to poor weather.   Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in remarks to Congress yesterday the U.S. is "no longer an overheated economy" as the job market has cooled and in many ways is back where it was before the health crisis.   Powell told the

Highlights Eduardo Vanin reported Sunday grain export traders in Brazil are planning to extend the soybean export program through July, and possibly into August because farmers are selling very little corn, but they are selling enough soybeans to load some ships. Kory Melby expects Brazil will soon be out of beans.   Argentine farmers’ soybean sales stalled in June, the head of the country’s crushing and export chamber (CIARA-CEC) told Reuters, down 45% from May’s sales as a

Analysis of Friday’s Carnage Benson Quinn Commodities said the biggest surprise on Friday was USDA apparently delaying release with no warning. If the report was delayed and no one knew the numbers, why was corn down 19¢ and beans up 7¢ when the report was released?   As we reported yesterday, the USDA said there were 3.36 million acres of corn and 12.767 million acres of beans left to be planted when USDA completed their survey. What we did not see was a note in the fine pri

Highlights The USDA reports were to be released at 11 AM Central Time yesterday. That was when corn started going down and beans began moving higher. Traffic on the USDA website at report release time is so heavy, us peons must wait a few minutes to access the report. Yesterday, we waited 10 to 12 minutes as corn continued to fall. That is when the USDA issued a statement on its website that technical difficulties led to a delay in the report being released.   What did that m

Highlights Yesterday morning, CONAB reduced their Brazilian soybean crop estimate 330,000 mts to 147.35 mil. (USDA at 153, down 1 mil.), but increased Brazil’s corn production by 2.5 mil. mts to 114.14 mil. mts (USDA at 122, unchanged).   Cash grain export trader for Agrinvest, Eduardo Vanin, said Thursday: The Brazil corn program is significantly smaller than last year. The corn program last year experienced a significant (export)  surge during JAS  (July, August, September)

Highlights If you have soft red winter wheat to deliver this summer, you need to set the basis about three weeks before harvest starts in your area. Historically, that is when the basis is as firm as it will get.     Soft red winter July wheat ended Friday at a one month low of $6.27½. All SRW wheat trading volume was a one month high of 280,935 contracts, with July seeing a heavy 131,164 contracts traded. Heavy trading volume on a down day for prices is an indication of stro

Highlights Yesterday, OPEC+ extended its “voluntary” production cuts through 2025 with the exception of the UAE. Thus, the UAE will increase production by 300,000 barrels per day from January 2025 and all OPEC+ quota will be 39.725 million barrels per day. The increase will be carried out in stages, from January 2025 and until the end of September 2025.   Multiple countries in Asia will report today their manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for the continent's bigge

Highlights The USA GDP for the first quarter was reported at 1.3% versus 1.2% estimate. Jobless claims were 219,000 to 218,000 expected with the previous week revised up to 216,000. Goods trade balance was deficit $99.4 billion vs. $91.8 billion estimate. Goods and services combined balance is a bit better, but consistently negative since the 90s, meaning US imports more than it exports, and that is one of the reasons the national debt is ever rising. A Federal Reserve “chit-

Highlights We had good news about the US economy yesterday morning. S&P Global (an independent agency) reported yesterday morning that its U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks both the manufacturing and services sectors, jumped to 54.4 this month. That is the highest level since April 2022 and well above 51.3 in April 2024.   A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index little changed at 51.1. The sharp increase