BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights & Export Sales November CBOT options expire today.   Weekly export sales were huge. According to Karen Braun, it was the fifth-largest corn sales for any week in at least 20 years, while sales of soybeans were the 2nd largest for any week in over a year. Also, yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 227,600 mts of old crop corn to Japan 165,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown 198,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale  of: 130,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 259,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown 100,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown, the 6th straight business day of a corn export sale announcement.   Angie Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting reported yesterday: "According to AgTraderTalk, a brokerage and analytical firm, yesterday’s sale brings the full month total to nearly 4.7 million metric tons, the fourth largest month

Tidbits Ukraine's President Zelensky made demands while speaking before the EU's European Council in Brussels. Zelensky said he wants to join NATO and, if Ukraine is not accepted, then he will have to resort to nuclear weapons. Zelensky sounds like he is getting more worried about Ukraine's situation.   The Biden Administration provided $425 million in aid to Ukraine earlier this week. From what we hear from people on the ground in Western North Carolina, that FEMA operation

Highlights U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% last month after a 0.1% gain in August, the Census Bureau reported yesterday. The market expected a gain of 0.3%.   Applications for unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week ended October 12. Economists expected it unchanged.   Those two better than expected numbers reduced the probability of a half percent point (50 basis points) interest rate cut in November to near zero, but the mark

Highlights The USDA will release at 11 AM Central Time today its monthly S&D. Note below every average estimate is less than the September USDA S&D. ADM’s summary: On the economy front, we got mixed news yesterday morning. Inflation was higher than expected (a reason for higher interest rates) and unemployment claims were higher than expected (for lower interest rates).   The Labor Department reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI, inflation at the retail level) rose 2.4% for

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 116,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China and 198,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. On its weekly tender, Japan bought 137,000 mts of milling wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia. Saudi Arabia is still looking for 295,000 mts of hard milling (bread) wheat.   Estimates for yesterday morning’s employment report were forecasting an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs, a 0.3% increase in hourly earnings, and an unchan

Highlights We continue to hear of yields that are terrible and yields that are the best ever from across the Corn Belt. We really do not have any confidence in saying the USDA should raise or lower national average yields on next Friday’s S&D. We do sense bean yields are more likely to see a yield reduction or a smaller increase than corn.       Rain in the forecast for Brazil and no rain in the forecast for Corn Belt pressured corn and beans yesterday. Wheat prices were thum

Tidbits The European Commission has proposed a delay of its landmark law Deforestation-Free Products Regulation (DFPR). You may recall that ADM was offering a 15 or 20¢ premium for soybeans with a certificate that the beans were not grown on land cleared of trees within the past few years. That was because ADM wanted to sell soybean meal to Europe in 2025 and, without the DFPR certificate, no commodity would be allowed to enter the EU in 2025. Due to the massive backlash of t

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. It will show the inventory of all commodities as of September first and there could be some production and consumption adjustments made for any of the past three marketing years. In other words, there could be some big surprises. We expect some serious long futures profit-taking and cash selling of corn and beans before the report comes out.    The ten-day weather forecast showed ra

Highlights Several of our Eastern Corn Belt clients informed us yesterday afternoon and evening that the wind on the wet corn stalks really knocked a lot of corn down late Friday to Saturday morning. Bob told us the Case IH dealer in Urbana of Champaign County, Ohio sold two corn reels yesterday morning.       Soybean yields from about a dozen farms in northeast Illinois range from 25.4 to 65.1. Three in the 20's, one 39 bu, three in the 40's, one 53.7, and two in the 60's. T

Highlights The Federal Reserve reduced the Fed Fund Interest Rate by 50 basis points. Eleven or the 12 board members voted to reduce the interest rate by a half percent. The outlook closing said the Fed expects to reduce the interest rate at least another half percent before the end of 2024.   The Fed referenced the growth of the global and US economy is stable, inflation is coming down, and the labor market is still solid. Powell said the half point cut should send a message

Highlights Today at 1 PM Central the Federal Reserve will announce its decision about an interest rate cut. The market has priced-in a 35% probability of a 25 basis point cut (¼%) and 65% probability of a 50 basis point (½%) cut. We think the market is overly optimistic based on the facts of inflation versus job creation. If the Fed wants to play politics, they will go with a half percent cut or maybe a 75 basis point cut, which would be bullish commodities and the equity mar

Highlights The US CPI data (inflation at retail level) for August +0.2% as expected. For the past 12 months, the CPI was up 2.5%, slightly less than the expected 2.6%. However, what the government calls the “core” CPI was up 0.3% in August, which was more than the expected 0.2% and core inflation was up 3.2% for the past 12 months, which was as expected, but well above the Fed’s target of 2%.   As a result of the CPI numbers, the interest rate markets show the odds of a half

Highlights A developing tropical storm that is expected to track through the Gulf of Mexico and hit parts of Texas and Louisiana by Thursday will hit 60% of the US refining capacity and a large percentage of off-shore drilling and pumping platforms.   Colombian rebels have renewed their war on that nation’s oil industry with a wave of pipeline attacks that sent crude spilling into rivers and clouds of black smoke billowing into the sky. The National Liberation Army is reactiv

Highlights Crude oil was supported yesterday by Saudi Arabia's decision to recommend OPEC+ postpone production increase in October. However, the worldwide doom and gloom crowd continues to bad-mouth crude oil demand.   China requested the US immediately lift the tariffs on Chinese goods. Reuters News reports President Biden is expected to decide in the coming days about increasing tariffs on Chinese products.    French wheat growers’ group predicts their soft wheat production

Highlights On Tuesday, China hit Canada with an anti-dumping probe on canola after Canada imposed 100% tariffs on China’s electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on China’s aluminum. Canola November futures traded down the $45 per mt limit on Tuesday and settled down $23.80. Yesterday, canola stayed above Tuesday’s low, but settled down another $11.20.   Many analysts are saying this could be a trick that China likes to do to drop the prices of a commodity before making a purchase

Highlights Libya has yet to resume oil exports one week after the Haftar clan blocked production in a bid to gain leverage over a battle to control the Central Bank. Six engineers told the Pan-Arab newspaper that exports remained halted at six ports although some production was being increased to feed local power generation and ease fuel shortages.   According to S&P Global, up to 230,000 barrels per day of crude output has been restored at three eastern fields under the cont

Highlights Most markets except financials will be closed on Monday, September 2, due to the Labor Day holiday. Trade will resume Monday evening. The U.S. Department of Commerce revised second quarter GDP up 0.2% to +3.0% of growth. GDP in the first quarter of 2024 was +1.4%. Consumer spending rose 2.9% in the second quarter versus 1.5% in the first quarter 2024. U.S. jobs figures yesterday show the number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits slipped last week, bu

Highlights Canada’s government has ordered Canada’s railways and workers’ union to get back to work on Friday. Union members went to work yesterday, but it will take several days to get back up and running smoothly.   The BNSF has halted grain shuttle trains to Mexico for 3 days due to ongoing congestion and service interruptions that have resulted in equipment being held in Mexico, according to BNSF and USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service. This could end up being a huge hi

Highlights ProFarmer Tour results and comments by Reuters’ Karen Braun: Minnesota corn yield at 164.9 bu/acre, the tour's lowest since 2012 and down 9% from 2023. USDA has MN corn yield unchanged year-on-year. Pod counts for soybeans were near the 3-year average. “10 stops along my route in southwest Minnesota. Not a single corn field looked good from the road, and that largely held true inside. Corn was yellow and uneven everywhere.”   Iowa corn yield at 192.79 bu/acre, a to