BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China.    The 2 to 5 trading days before the delivery notices  are issued are usually more down days than up. December deliveries will be assigned to the oldest long positions tomorrow. Yesterday was the last day to liquidate December positions to avoid any chance of delivery. Soft red winter wheat was down 4 of the last 6 days; Dec hard red winter wheat was down 4 of the last 6 days

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale  of: 202,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 226,200 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown   The Biden Administration closed the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv,  Ukraine because of the escalating war. Historically, the U.S. has kept U.S. Embassies open until the very last possible day because it is the last safe-haven for Americans and America’s friends in the country. Following the U.S., Italy, Spain and a number of other countrie

Highlights Two telecommunications cables cut in the Baltic Sea in 48 hours prompted European officials to say Tuesday that they suspect "sabotage" and "hybrid warfare" linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.   The four countries affected by the cuts, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, and Sweden, have all launched investigations, with Berlin and Swedish police saying they suspected sabotage. Two Danish navy ships began shadowing a Chinese cargo vessel, the Yi Peng 3, as it sailed o

Highlights The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) soybean crush was an all-time monthly high in October. NOPA members crushed 199.959 million bu., eclipsing the record of 196.406 million bu. set in March of 2024. To learn all about NOPA, go to: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/about-the-nopa   "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates" , said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday during a speech in Dallas.

Highlights The Labor Department reported yesterday morning the Consumer Price Index  (CPI; inflation at the retail level) increased 0.2% in October, taking the 12-month inflation rate up to 2.6%. Both numbers were in line with expectations. Later this morning, we will get the Producer Price Index (PPI), the measure of inflation at the wholesale level. The market expects it was up 0.2% in October as was the CPI. CPI chart for the last years: On Ag Talk, a Cherokee, Iowa farmer

At 10 AM Mountain Time today the USDA will issue its November S&D.  On Wednesday, an EPA auditor gave an agricultural commercial chemical applicator, who does business with one of our clients, a set of new regulations that went into effect Wednesday. The applicator told our client these new regulations will require some serious limitations in 2025. The limited information our client has is that the new regulations have something to do with the Endangered Species Act. If any o

Highlights Wayne Bacon of Hammersmith Reports has been involved in the international grain trade for more than 60 years. His comment this week on corn: "Corn had a good week for export with large sales to Mexico and a new shipment loading to Tunisia in NOLA. I have not seen US corn sold to Tunisia in quite a while. The US Grains Council office in Tunis says that more US corn business is expected for Tunisia."   Tunisia  is in North Africa, a hop, skip, and a jump from the Bla

A German Lesson In the days before paper currency, there were very few money supply problems. As populations grew and society shifted...

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale  of: 715,800 mts of old crop corn to Mexico 65,532 mts of new crop corn to Mexico 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 198,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown 30,000 mts of old crop soybean oil to India The USDA reported the September crush numbers  for: Soybeans: Crush was 187 million bushels, 12 million more bushels (6.8%) than a year ago. The soy oil inventory at the end of September was 5% more than a year

Highlights December crude oil  made a 4-week low Tuesday after Israel's weekend retaliatory strike was very limited and raised hopes that the direct attacks between Iran and Israel were over for the time being. Iran said on Monday its oil industry was operating normally despite the weekend strike by Israel. The risk premium in oil prices was further reduced Monday when Israel said it was open to a short truce in Gaza in return for the release of a small number of hostages.  

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of: 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown 273,048 mts of old crop corn to unknown Angie Setzer reported: “ Tuesday’s weakness in beans was due to rumors that China is planning to shut down ports for 2-3 weeks to update their quarantine rules. While this is not unusual, considering something similar happened twice last year, it does create some uncertainty over the pace of

Highlights & Export Sales November CBOT options expire today.   Weekly export sales were huge. According to Karen Braun, it was the fifth-largest corn sales for any week in at least 20 years, while sales of soybeans were the 2nd largest for any week in over a year. Also, yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 227,600 mts of old crop corn to Japan 165,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown 198,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale  of: 130,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 259,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown 100,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown, the 6th straight business day of a corn export sale announcement.   Angie Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting reported yesterday: "According to AgTraderTalk, a brokerage and analytical firm, yesterday’s sale brings the full month total to nearly 4.7 million metric tons, the fourth largest month

Tidbits Ukraine's President Zelensky made demands while speaking before the EU's European Council in Brussels. Zelensky said he wants to join NATO and, if Ukraine is not accepted, then he will have to resort to nuclear weapons. Zelensky sounds like he is getting more worried about Ukraine's situation.   The Biden Administration provided $425 million in aid to Ukraine earlier this week. From what we hear from people on the ground in Western North Carolina, that FEMA operation

Highlights U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% last month after a 0.1% gain in August, the Census Bureau reported yesterday. The market expected a gain of 0.3%.   Applications for unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week ended October 12. Economists expected it unchanged.   Those two better than expected numbers reduced the probability of a half percent point (50 basis points) interest rate cut in November to near zero, but the mark

Highlights The USDA will release at 11 AM Central Time today its monthly S&D. Note below every average estimate is less than the September USDA S&D. ADM’s summary: On the economy front, we got mixed news yesterday morning. Inflation was higher than expected (a reason for higher interest rates) and unemployment claims were higher than expected (for lower interest rates).   The Labor Department reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI, inflation at the retail level) rose 2.4% for

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 116,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China and 198,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. On its weekly tender, Japan bought 137,000 mts of milling wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia. Saudi Arabia is still looking for 295,000 mts of hard milling (bread) wheat.   Estimates for yesterday morning’s employment report were forecasting an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs, a 0.3% increase in hourly earnings, and an unchan

Highlights We continue to hear of yields that are terrible and yields that are the best ever from across the Corn Belt. We really do not have any confidence in saying the USDA should raise or lower national average yields on next Friday’s S&D. We do sense bean yields are more likely to see a yield reduction or a smaller increase than corn.       Rain in the forecast for Brazil and no rain in the forecast for Corn Belt pressured corn and beans yesterday. Wheat prices were thum

Tidbits The European Commission has proposed a delay of its landmark law Deforestation-Free Products Regulation (DFPR). You may recall that ADM was offering a 15 or 20¢ premium for soybeans with a certificate that the beans were not grown on land cleared of trees within the past few years. That was because ADM wanted to sell soybean meal to Europe in 2025 and, without the DFPR certificate, no commodity would be allowed to enter the EU in 2025. Due to the massive backlash of t

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. It will show the inventory of all commodities as of September first and there could be some production and consumption adjustments made for any of the past three marketing years. In other words, there could be some big surprises. We expect some serious long futures profit-taking and cash selling of corn and beans before the report comes out.    The ten-day weather forecast showed ra