BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights There were rains of 2.5 to 3.5 inches across a wide area of Argentina’s crop land yesterday and more rain is expected this Sunday through Wednesday next week. AgRural reported yesterday Brazil’s  soybean crop was 23% harvested as of last Thursday, an increase from 15% last week. They say the second crop corn is 36% planted. Ag Resource estimates that 24% of the soybeans have been harvested and about 30% of the second-crop safrinha corn was planted across Brazil as

Highlights After the ag futures close today, they will not reopen until Monday evening at normal times. Crude oil will be trading normal hours Sunday night and Monday. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate of Argentine corn production by 2 million mts to 46 million mts (USDA 50) and lowered soybean production by 5 million to 47.5 million mts (USDA 49). CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) reduced their Brazilian soybean production estimate by a mere 310,000 mts to 166 million mts

Agriculture futures markets are closed Monday, President’s Day. Highlights Was yesterday’s soybean action  the signal that the market has started to believe the monster soybean crop in Brazil will get harvested? Or was it the tariff threats, the possibility the war in Eastern Europe will soon come to an end, or the sharply lower crude oil reducing the value of bean oil, or something else? In any case, March beans traded lower than any day since 17 January. During the course o

Highlights The weather pattern Mato Grosso and Goias through Wednesday is expected to allow a sharp advance in the harvest pace. Weather forecasts indicate alternating rain and sun, with higher temperatures. Elevators in Mato Grosso reported a three to fourfold increase in soybean deliveries the past two days. Crushers report very low protein content (below 33%), but high oil content.   In Brazil’s leading corn and bean producing state, Mato Grosso (MT), the prices in July fo

Highlights Canada is taking similar measures in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's 25%  tariffs on its goods, Canadian Prime...

Highlights Despite many rumors and some “reports” Friday to the contrary, the White House confirmed in a press briefing tariffs  they will go into effect today. The Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated, "The President will be implementing tomorrow, 25% tariffs on Mexico, 25% tariffs on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China for the illegal fentanyl that they sourced and allowed to distribute into our country which has killed tens of millions of Americans."   President Donald Tr

Highlights The weather forecast has rain coming to the dry areas of South America a day sooner next week than expected yesterday, but the wet area looks less likely to dry out, but rainfall amounts are reduced. Thirty minutes before Wall Street closed yesterday, Trump said Saturday would be tariff decision  day. Trump added he’s still mulling whether the tariffs will hit oil too. “We may or may not, we’re going to make that determination probably tonight based on oil prices”.

Highlights Colombia’s President Petro late Sunday agreed to all of President Trump’s terms on the deportation of migrants. Colombia is a top 5 buyer of U.S. corn and soybean meal while the U.S. is Colombia’s number one trading partner and buys nearly one-third of Colombia’s total exports. Colombia sends crude oil, gold, bananas, fresh-cut flowers, and more than one-quarter of US coffee imports come from Colombia. U.S. tech stocks  were sharply lower yesterday, after Chinese A

Highlights Weather in Argentina is the single most important factor for the price of soybeans from now until the rains start. Argentina’s crop areas saw mostly 100°F (38°C) or higher yesterday as the debate about when the showers will start became the number one topic for the bean market. There is no consensus when the showers will come, but there are plenty of opinions and conflicting forecasts.   Reuter’s World Agriculture Reporter Karen Braun issued this report after the

Due to a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter, equity and stock option markets will be closed today. Agricultural futures markets will close early at 12:15 pm CDT today and re-open this evening at normal times. Highlights As you know, we have been encouraging you soybean owners to get your beans sold by 12 January. That recommendation has nothing to do with tomorrow’s USDA world S&D. The soybean sale recommendation is based on the historical fact that wh

Tidbits Computer selling  completely got out of hand yesterday. It all started because the market continues to expect the largest ever soybean crop in Brazil, which is the same expectation every year for the last 50+ years. Beans eventually pulled corn lower and then corn pulled wheat lower. The economic problems in Brazil, Congress may not be able to get a bill passed to keep the government running into the new year, and uncertainty about the biofuel guidelines also added to

Tidbits The Institute for Supply Management (ISM)  manufacturing index, also known as the purchasing managers' index (PMI), is a monthly economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers at manufacturing firms nationwide. It is considered to be a key indicator of the state of the economy. In the U.S., several organizations conduct a survey and report their PMI results.   The ISM PMI, which is announced on the first business day of each month, can greatly influence in

Tidbits The American economy  expanded at a healthy 2.8% annual pace in the third quarter of 2024 on strong consumer spending and a surge in exports, the government said Wednesday, leaving unchanged its initial estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter, which was 0.2% less growth than in the second quarter.   U.S. GDP expansion has topped 2% for 8 of the last 9 quarters. The Commerce Department will issue its final third quarter 2024 GDP report on Dec. 19.   Consumer spendi

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China.    The 2 to 5 trading days before the delivery notices  are issued are usually more down days than up. December deliveries will be assigned to the oldest long positions tomorrow. Yesterday was the last day to liquidate December positions to avoid any chance of delivery. Soft red winter wheat was down 4 of the last 6 days; Dec hard red winter wheat was down 4 of the last 6 days

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale  of: 202,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 226,200 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown   The Biden Administration closed the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv,  Ukraine because of the escalating war. Historically, the U.S. has kept U.S. Embassies open until the very last possible day because it is the last safe-haven for Americans and America’s friends in the country. Following the U.S., Italy, Spain and a number of other countrie

Highlights Two telecommunications cables cut in the Baltic Sea in 48 hours prompted European officials to say Tuesday that they suspect "sabotage" and "hybrid warfare" linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.   The four countries affected by the cuts, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, and Sweden, have all launched investigations, with Berlin and Swedish police saying they suspected sabotage. Two Danish navy ships began shadowing a Chinese cargo vessel, the Yi Peng 3, as it sailed o

Highlights The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) soybean crush was an all-time monthly high in October. NOPA members crushed 199.959 million bu., eclipsing the record of 196.406 million bu. set in March of 2024. To learn all about NOPA, go to: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/about-the-nopa   "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates" , said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday during a speech in Dallas.

Highlights The Labor Department reported yesterday morning the Consumer Price Index  (CPI; inflation at the retail level) increased 0.2% in October, taking the 12-month inflation rate up to 2.6%. Both numbers were in line with expectations. Later this morning, we will get the Producer Price Index (PPI), the measure of inflation at the wholesale level. The market expects it was up 0.2% in October as was the CPI. CPI chart for the last years: On Ag Talk, a Cherokee, Iowa farmer

At 10 AM Mountain Time today the USDA will issue its November S&D.  On Wednesday, an EPA auditor gave an agricultural commercial chemical applicator, who does business with one of our clients, a set of new regulations that went into effect Wednesday. The applicator told our client these new regulations will require some serious limitations in 2025. The limited information our client has is that the new regulations have something to do with the Endangered Species Act. If any o

Highlights Wayne Bacon of Hammersmith Reports has been involved in the international grain trade for more than 60 years. His comment this week on corn: "Corn had a good week for export with large sales to Mexico and a new shipment loading to Tunisia in NOLA. I have not seen US corn sold to Tunisia in quite a while. The US Grains Council office in Tunis says that more US corn business is expected for Tunisia."   Tunisia  is in North Africa, a hop, skip, and a jump from the Bla