BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities in Brazil about the U.S. corn  outlook written Wednesday afternoon: "The short-term fundamentals of American corn are still positive. American corn is the most competitive in most destinations. The market is no longer looking at this, but at the increase in supply for the 2025-26 season. This week, corn offered by the PNW gained two more tenders in South Korea. Sales should continue to be good, but some factors are starting to

Tidbits Federal Reserve  Chairman Jerome Powell said yesterday afternoon interest rates will not be changed this month, but he weighed in on the state of the US economy. His outlook was not reassuring, which was not a surprise knowing he hates Trump. Powell said Trump’s policies are one reason why inflation is reigniting. Powell said the Fed sharply reduced its 2025 growth projection for the U.S. economy and noted that uncertainty around the slowing economy is increasing. Pow

Price of Crude Oil May Be Going Up Last week, the Iranian-backed Houthis said they would resume attacks on Israeli vessels sailing off the coast of Yemen in response to Israel’s latest blockade on Gaza. The Houthis' warning affected the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Arabian Sea.   President Trump ordered a series of airstrikes on the Houthi-held areas in Yemen on Saturday, promising to use “overwhelming lethal force” until Iranian-backed Houthi r

Highlights Early yesterday afternoon, President Trump said, "After speaking with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement until April 2nd.   Mexico’s President Sheinbaum said, "We had an excellent and respectful call in which we agreed that our work and collaboration have yielded unprecedented results, within the framework of respect for our sovereignties."   Sheinbaum

Tidbits U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said President Trump is in constant contact with both Mexico and Canadian officials regarding a possible agreement that would pull the 25% tariffs applied on Tuesday. He said Mexico's team was cooperating; Canada's team not so much.    On Tuesday, the stock markets and crude oil market crashed, in large part, due to a GDP forecasting model used by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The dollar is now 104.25 on the index, down

Highlights In response to Trump's tariffs that went into effect at 12:01 AM Tuesday, China placed an additional tariff of 15% on U.S. wheat, corn, cotton, chicken and an additional 10% on U.S. soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef and other agricultural products. Also China suspended on Tuesday the soybean import licences of three U.S. firms (CHS Inc, Louis Dreyfus Company Grains Merchandising LLC and export grain terminal operator EGT) and halted imports of U.S. logs, stepping up it

Highlights British Prime Minister Keir Starmer  said yesterday his country will supply Ukraine with 5,000 air defense missiles roughly costing US$2 billion. Starmer hosted a security summit in London Sunday attended by key persons from France, Germany, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Canada, Finland, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Turkey, and Romania. The group will work toward a cease-fire plan to present to the United States as an effort to end the war.

Highlights There were rains of 2.5 to 3.5 inches across a wide area of Argentina’s crop land yesterday and more rain is expected this Sunday through Wednesday next week. AgRural reported yesterday Brazil’s  soybean crop was 23% harvested as of last Thursday, an increase from 15% last week. They say the second crop corn is 36% planted. Ag Resource estimates that 24% of the soybeans have been harvested and about 30% of the second-crop safrinha corn was planted across Brazil as

Highlights After the ag futures close today, they will not reopen until Monday evening at normal times. Crude oil will be trading normal hours Sunday night and Monday. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate of Argentine corn production by 2 million mts to 46 million mts (USDA 50) and lowered soybean production by 5 million to 47.5 million mts (USDA 49). CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) reduced their Brazilian soybean production estimate by a mere 310,000 mts to 166 million mts

Agriculture futures markets are closed Monday, President’s Day. Highlights Was yesterday’s soybean action  the signal that the market has started to believe the monster soybean crop in Brazil will get harvested? Or was it the tariff threats, the possibility the war in Eastern Europe will soon come to an end, or the sharply lower crude oil reducing the value of bean oil, or something else? In any case, March beans traded lower than any day since 17 January. During the course o

Highlights The weather pattern Mato Grosso and Goias through Wednesday is expected to allow a sharp advance in the harvest pace. Weather forecasts indicate alternating rain and sun, with higher temperatures. Elevators in Mato Grosso reported a three to fourfold increase in soybean deliveries the past two days. Crushers report very low protein content (below 33%), but high oil content.   In Brazil’s leading corn and bean producing state, Mato Grosso (MT), the prices in July fo

Highlights Canada is taking similar measures in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's 25%  tariffs on its goods, Canadian Prime...

Highlights Despite many rumors and some “reports” Friday to the contrary, the White House confirmed in a press briefing tariffs  they will go into effect today. The Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated, "The President will be implementing tomorrow, 25% tariffs on Mexico, 25% tariffs on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China for the illegal fentanyl that they sourced and allowed to distribute into our country which has killed tens of millions of Americans."   President Donald Tr

Highlights The weather forecast has rain coming to the dry areas of South America a day sooner next week than expected yesterday, but the wet area looks less likely to dry out, but rainfall amounts are reduced. Thirty minutes before Wall Street closed yesterday, Trump said Saturday would be tariff decision  day. Trump added he’s still mulling whether the tariffs will hit oil too. “We may or may not, we’re going to make that determination probably tonight based on oil prices”.

Highlights Colombia’s President Petro late Sunday agreed to all of President Trump’s terms on the deportation of migrants. Colombia is a top 5 buyer of U.S. corn and soybean meal while the U.S. is Colombia’s number one trading partner and buys nearly one-third of Colombia’s total exports. Colombia sends crude oil, gold, bananas, fresh-cut flowers, and more than one-quarter of US coffee imports come from Colombia. U.S. tech stocks  were sharply lower yesterday, after Chinese A

Highlights Weather in Argentina is the single most important factor for the price of soybeans from now until the rains start. Argentina’s crop areas saw mostly 100°F (38°C) or higher yesterday as the debate about when the showers will start became the number one topic for the bean market. There is no consensus when the showers will come, but there are plenty of opinions and conflicting forecasts.   Reuter’s World Agriculture Reporter Karen Braun issued this report after the

Due to a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter, equity and stock option markets will be closed today. Agricultural futures markets will close early at 12:15 pm CDT today and re-open this evening at normal times. Highlights As you know, we have been encouraging you soybean owners to get your beans sold by 12 January. That recommendation has nothing to do with tomorrow’s USDA world S&D. The soybean sale recommendation is based on the historical fact that wh

Tidbits Computer selling  completely got out of hand yesterday. It all started because the market continues to expect the largest ever soybean crop in Brazil, which is the same expectation every year for the last 50+ years. Beans eventually pulled corn lower and then corn pulled wheat lower. The economic problems in Brazil, Congress may not be able to get a bill passed to keep the government running into the new year, and uncertainty about the biofuel guidelines also added to

Tidbits The Institute for Supply Management (ISM)  manufacturing index, also known as the purchasing managers' index (PMI), is a monthly economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers at manufacturing firms nationwide. It is considered to be a key indicator of the state of the economy. In the U.S., several organizations conduct a survey and report their PMI results.   The ISM PMI, which is announced on the first business day of each month, can greatly influence in

Tidbits The American economy  expanded at a healthy 2.8% annual pace in the third quarter of 2024 on strong consumer spending and a surge in exports, the government said Wednesday, leaving unchanged its initial estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter, which was 0.2% less growth than in the second quarter.   U.S. GDP expansion has topped 2% for 8 of the last 9 quarters. The Commerce Department will issue its final third quarter 2024 GDP report on Dec. 19.   Consumer spendi