BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Yesterday’s soybean export inspections were the largest weekly total in nearly two years and 69% of the beans went to China.   Cash grain export trader Eduardo Vanin reported yesterday that in the last two weeks China bought more than 90 cargoes or soybeans, 35 out of the US, 7 out of Brazil for November shipment and 46 vessels from Brazil’s new crop.   Yesterday morning, USDA reported the sale of: 169,926 mts of old crop corn to Mexico and 130,000 mts of old crop

Tidbits Asia markets opened today with an increasingly bullish global backdrop fueled by continued strength in U.S. stocks, but with local sentiment more circumspect due to the uncertainty surrounding China's deep-rooted economic problems, but China continues to address those problems.   The People's Bank of China is expected to cut its loan prime rates today as Beijing's latest move in a series of monetary, fiscal, and liquidity support measures to shore up the imploding pro

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 43,276, +412.05 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $69.34, -6.15. Dollar Index  settled at 103.46, +0.54. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,576, -233 for the week. Corn December futures  at $4.04¾, -11¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = Dec; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over December futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cas

Tidbits Ukraine's President Zelensky made demands while speaking before the EU's European Council in Brussels. Zelensky said he wants to join NATO and, if Ukraine is not accepted, then he will have to resort to nuclear weapons. Zelensky sounds like he is getting more worried about Ukraine's situation.   The Biden Administration provided $425 million in aid to Ukraine earlier this week. From what we hear from people on the ground in Western North Carolina, that FEMA operation

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 21,000 mts of old crop soybean oil to Mexico 125,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown 292,800 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown Taiwan purchased 78,200 mts of US wheat in a tender on Thursday.   How does this Wednesday’s export sale of 1.995 million mts of corn match-up with the ten biggest corn sale days in US history:

Highlights U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% last month after a 0.1% gain in August, the Census Bureau reported yesterday. The market expected a gain of 0.3%.   Applications for unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week ended October 12. Economists expected it unchanged.   Those two better than expected numbers reduced the probability of a half percent point (50 basis points) interest rate cut in November to near zero, but the mark

Highlights Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of: 1,043,940 mts of old crop corn to Mexico 579,120 mts of new crop corn to Mexico 332,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown 175,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown   November soybean futures gained 5½¢ on the January beans the past 8 trading sessions. Benson Quinn Commodities, which is owned by ADM, say crushers only have enough beans to keep operating for two weeks. Farmers are not selling beans with the 90¢ drop in f

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close  Tuesday, October 15 , 2024: December corn settled yesterday at $4.01¼, -21¢ since last Tuesd

Highlights Yesterday was an all-around ugly attitude day for a variety of reasons, none-of-which justified the magnitude of the lower price movement. Rainy season is getting stronger in Brazil.   Good harvest weather in the U.S., which we know it would be last week. China’s economy is not going to get fixed soon enough to maintain demand for crude oil and all other commodities. Crude was down more than $4 at one point for the second consecutive day. Disappointing corn and whe

Highlights Yesterday’s U.S. commodity market was down on harvest pressure and China sent a record 125 military aircraft to encircle Taiwan “as a resolute punishment for Taiwan’s president's continuous fabrication of ‘Taiwan independence’ nonsense.”     The commodity markets fear that politicians may pull a Jimmy Carter stunt and “punish” China like Carter punished the Soviet Union for its Christmas Eve 1979 invasion of Afghanistan. On 4 January 1980, Carter banned U.S. grain

Q&A: ENSO Eugene asked: "Last Tuesday, you guys reported this ENSO chart: Your comment says that 60 days below the -0.5 threshold forms the La Nina. Water temperature has been below the line at least since early July. However, NOAA says "La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance)". https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml   So, why is it not a La Nina event already but a chance for it?" Roger’s reply:

Tidbits Independent financial news service, Caixin Global, reported China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) announced yesterday policies for local governments to buy land and housing from property developers and promised intensive support to help localities with their hidden debts.   These highly anticipated fiscal measures are expected to complement a slate of monetary and other initiatives announced by the country’s central bank last month to boost the sluggish economic recovery.

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 42,864, +511.11 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $75.49, +1.04. Dollar Index  settled at 102.92, +0.43. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,809, -119 for the week. Corn December futures  at $4.15¾, -9¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = Dec; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over December futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash

Highlights The main point of interest on yesterday’s S&D was what would the USDA do with corn and bean yields. The market expected both to be reduced slightly. USDA did lower bean yields one-tenth of a bushel, as expected, but increased corn yields two-tenths of a bushel while the market expected a two-tenths of a bushel reduction.   USDA increased corn demand by 73 million bushels, bringing the total increase in corn demand since 1 November to 813 million bushels! Throw in t

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Neutral Soybeans Neutral Wheat   17 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn -1 Nov beans -5 Dec CBOT wheat -9...

Highlights The USDA will release at 11 AM Central Time today its monthly S&D. Note below every average estimate is less than the September USDA S&D. ADM’s summary: On the economy front, we got mixed news yesterday morning. Inflation was higher than expected (a reason for higher interest rates) and unemployment claims were higher than expected (for lower interest rates).   The Labor Department reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI, inflation at the retail level) rose 2.4% for

Highlights The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report highlights: U.S. ethanol production was up; market expected it to be down U.S. ethanol stocks were way down; market expected moderate decline to up a little U.S. gasoline demand was 6.4% stronger than the four-week average   Karen Braun shared a summary: USA exported a record volume of ethanol over the last year (Sep 2023-Aug 2024), some 30% above the recent five-year average. USA's 2024 imports of anim

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close  Tuesday, October 8 , 2024: December corn settled yesterday at $4.22¼, -6¾¢ since last Tuesda

Highlights The river gauge at Memphis will restrict barge drafts by October 13th if no rain comes this week. Weather Monday night poured down rain in Western Pennsylvania.   Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 166,000 mts of old crop (2024) soybeans to China.     Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn and soybean numbers unchanged. He has corn at 15.09 billion bushels with a yield forecast of 182.5 bushels (USDA 15.186 & 183.6) and his soybean numbers at 4.44

Highlights Cash crude oil was $2.91 higher and futures were $2.76 higher yesterday for several reasons: Expectations Israel will hit Iran’s crude oil fields and refineries (not likely to happen). Oil platforms shutting down as Hurricane Milton moves across the Gulf of Mexico.   For the second consecutive week, the largest speculative short position held by speculators. Ukraine said it had struck a major offshore oil terminal in Russian-occupied Crimea. China announced its eco