BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Friday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 150,000 mts of old corn to Colombia. U.S Government funding  now expires on March 14, 2025. It will be the responsibility of the 119th Congress to grab the bull by the horns and immediately begin enacting reforms that grow the economy, cut wasteful spending, and restructure the government to serve the interests of the American people. Ukraine will block all Russian natural gas  lines moving Russian gas to the EU on Januar

Tidbits A trade dispute panel ruled Mexico violated the USMCA (US, Mexico, Canada Agreement) when it banned the import of GMO corn  in early 2023. As Mexico is the top destination for U.S. corn, yesterday’s ruling is a win for U.S. corn farmers.   However, note that shortly after Mexico announced the ban on GMO corn, Mexico modified the regulation to just human consumption corn, which is not much corn.         Bulgaria's oilseed crop  this year was its lowest crop in more tha

Tidbits South Korea bought 201,000 mts of corn: 136,000 mts is expected from unspecified sources and 65,000 mts from South America. Japan bought 77,220 mts of milling wheat from a tender that we mentioned 2 days ago: 55,420 mts from the U.S. and 21,800 mts from Australia. China's Sinograin has bought nearly 500,000 mts of U.S. soybeans this week for shipment in March and April, paying more for U.S. supplies for state reserves rather than buying cheaper Brazilian beans, two U.

Tidbits Computer selling  completely got out of hand yesterday. It all started because the market continues to expect the largest ever soybean crop in Brazil, which is the same expectation every year for the last 50+ years. Beans eventually pulled corn lower and then corn pulled wheat lower. The economic problems in Brazil, Congress may not be able to get a bill passed to keep the government running into the new year, and uncertainty about the biofuel guidelines also added to

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, December 17 , 2024: March corn settled yesterday at $4.43½, -5½¢ since last Tuesday.

Tidbits If you have beans on a January basis contract, get them rolled today to March. This market may go inverted (January premium to...

Tidbits Yesterday’s NOPA crush  for November was down 3% from October and about 3.5 million bushels less than expected, but it was a record high for any November at 193.19 million bushels. Oil Stocks were 1.084 billion pounds; the average oil inventory estimate was 1.123 billion pounds, starting the new soy oil marketing year at the lowest level since 2014/2015.   AgRural estimates the Brazilian  corn crop at 121.3 million mts (USDA 127) and Brazil’s soybean crop at 171.5 mil

Question about the value of the dollar versus corn: "Looking back to 2021 when corn prices were way higher, I compared it to the value of the US dollar and it did not really look like that was a major contributor. So, what stars lined up to cause the rapid increase and high price of corn??? Or am I misreading the dollar vs. corn chart?"   The facts: We have all heard a thousand times over the decades that a lower (exchange rate) dollar is bullish for commodities because forei

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 43,828, -814.46 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $71.09, +3.92. Dollar Index  settled at 106.94, +0.97. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,051, -116 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.42, +2¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash pric

Soybeans Comment Today is the first day of the 45 day period that will make or break Brazil’s soybean crop.    Most years, soybean futures make a low for the year before 10 October (this year 14 August) and then prices firm into the end of the calendar year, trade sideways for two weeks and then down for two or three weeks. Why? If the majority of Brazil’s beans were planted at the normal time, by January 15th, the market knows the condition of the crop, soil moisture, and th

Highlights ADM’s Joe Mauck’s comments from yesterday afternoon:  "Growing conditions in South America  remain neutral, and precipitation is expected to be average to slightly below average for the next couple weeks. Production estimates for both Brazil and Argentina feels optimistic and could increase over the next 2 months. Thinking about planted acres for next year, corn looks a lot better than beans today.  Despite the cost to plant corn being higher than beans from a cash

Tidbits The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was reported yesterday morning. It is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level. It was slightly higher than expected at 0.4% for the month of November. Unemployment claims were 21,000 higher than expected at 242,000. The market continues to expect an interest rate cut Wednesday even though the inflation numbers do not justify it. The market has priced in a 98% chance of a 25 basis points cut next week to 4.25-4.50% on the Fed

Tidbits U.S. inflation  at the retail level increased 0.3% in November, the most in 7 months, but the Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates next week to support job growth. However, the decline in the inflation rate has come to an end and the Federal Reserve's inflation goal of 2% per year is well below the November annual rate of 3.6%.   Yesterday, the Bank of Canada reduced its base interest by 50 basis points (one-half percent) to 3.25%. Just a few months

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, December 10 , 2024: March corn settled yesterday at $4.49, +16¾¢ since last Tuesday.

Highlights The USDA S&D numbers released yesterday were as neutral as can be for soybeans and wheat, but bullish for corn. When Roger saw the corn numbers, he told Olga corn should be up 10 to 15 cents higher. Corn was up 4 when the report was released and it was 5 to 6 higher for the first 15 minutes after the report was released. Late in the trading session, March corn did trade to $4.50 yesterday and settled at $4.49, up 7¼. March corn traded to $4.52¼ on 2 October after m

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral Soybeans Neutral Wheat 17 Minutes After the Report: March Corn +4.75 January beans +2.25 March...

Tidbits Today at 10 AM Mountain Time, the USDA will issue its December S&D . If the U.S. corn carryover is reduced by 75 million bushels, which is possible to probable, the carryover will be reduced by 2 days for the second consecutive month and 6 days since September.    Market advisor Kevin Duling summarized his lengthy Monday market analysis this way: “Despite how things feel, from a fundamental standpoint, things are on pace. Exports have been amazing across the board on

Tidbits Bashar al-Assad  has ruled Syria for 24 years after his father ruled for 29 years until his death in 2000.  Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia Sunday after more than 11 years of civil war. Loyalists spoke with a sense of resignation about the implosion of his 24-year rule and with it, the end of decades of rule by minority Alawites - an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam - in majority Sunni Syria.   Opposition forces are asking for an 18 month cooling-off and re-organization perio

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 44,643, -139.48 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $67.17, -1.63. Dollar Index  settled at 105.97, -0.25. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,167, -131 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.40, +7½¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash pri

Donald "Doc" Sanders has been the Wright Family Veterinarian and friend since 1968. He has traveled the world as a dairy consultant to the World Bank, trained veterinarians, dairy farm managers and their staff in China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Ukraine, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Colombia, and Nicaragua. He manages his 750 acres of prime crop land in the Mad River Valley in Champaign County of West Central Ohio. He is retired from practice now, but his service to the far