BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Q&A: Gas Prices "Roger, do you have a recommendation for fall/winter l.p. prices? The quotes I received yesterday are the lowest ones so far this year and about 70 cents lower than last year. Thanks, Ross" (2 June 2023) Ross, after recommending clients not lock-in diesel, natural gas or propane costs for nearly a year, we made the recommendation to lock-in natural gas on 22 February 2023. The natural gas futures price rallied 8 consecutive days and has been in a modest downt

Highlights The OPEC+ meeting this Sunday was called by Saudi Arabia to chastise other members for pumping more crude oil than they agreed. Russia is at the top of the list of over-producers. In 1985, OPEC members agreed on production quotas. In early 1986, all OPEC members, except Saudi Arabia, were over-producing. In those days, Saudi Arabia was THE big hammer of crude oil production, bigger than they are now. To show the other OPEC members what real overproduction crude o

Highlights CHS reported some Iowa ethanol plants pushed their corn basis yesterday 25 cents to +75N (75 over the July futures for delivery now). Yesterday, May corn broke through its 200 day moving average price. That is bullish, Folks. USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 246,000 mt of old crop corn and 136,000 mt of new crop corn to China. It is good news for corn producers that China has bought more than 100,000 mts of new crop corn two consecutive days. It mean

Highlights A major winter storm is expected April 3 to 5 from the Central Rockies to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, bringing widespread heavy snow and blizzard conditions. The USDA said Friday farmers in Michigan will plant 50,000 more acres of corn this year than in 2022; Minnesota will plant 350,000 more acres of corn; South Dakota will plant 150,000 more and North Dakota will plant 800,000 more acres of corn in 2023 than 2022. That is 1.350 million additional acres

Highlights Crude oil traded 80¢ to $1.22 higher most of Tuesday evening to about the start of the business day in Europe. Crude oil prices lost $6 before recovering almost $2 on the settlement. It traded lower than any time since early December of 2021 and is 50% of its price just 53 weeks ago. The reason for the weakness in crude oil was the irrational fear of a world-wide bank failure as the troubled Credit Suisse Bank was once again in the spotlight when Saudi Arabia’s ma

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 612,000 mts of old crop corn to China. While it is important the US sold that much corn, it is also very important that it was China that bought it because some analysts were saying China had bought so much cheap corn from Brazil, they doubted China needed US corn. Few market analysts remember that 30+% of China was on covid lock-down for nearly three years ending in January. There is a huge pent-up demand for everythi

Highlights Russia announced yesterday it will reduce its oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March, exceeding its...

Highlights Mexico has officially scrapped the ban on GMO corn imports for animal feed and industrial use that was due to start in January. Mexico still plans to prohibit glyphosate and GMO corn for human consumption. That human consumption corn has never been a sizable percent of their corn imports. President Biden Administration said yesterday morning another 26 million barrels will be released from Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as Russia cuts production. That and the C

Highlights Russia launched a heavy barrage of missile attacks on two cities in northeast Ukraine Friday and announced it will reduce crude oil production by a half million barrels a day in March. The escalation of the war and crude oil cut both hit the news wires about an hour after we sent yesterday’s mailing. We do not see the oil production cut any more than a day or two market reaction that appeared to be completely absorbed yesterday afternoon. The war escalation prompt

Highlights The UN Secretary-General who is at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, said the world economy is in sad shape with multiple negative issues, which compound each other. The debate about the US debt ceiling is always a negative for markets. The Democrats are saying the Republicans are willing to stop social security checks, medicare payments and default on the national debt. It did not help attitudes when Microsoft and Amazon both laid-off 10,000

Highlights The hospitals in China will have more than 5.8 million beds occupied during the current epidemic. Deaths in the big cities are running 4 to 8 times the normal rate. The largest port city, Shanghai, is in the worst shape. None-the-less, the top brass of China’s government said yesterday morning total quarantines or lock-downs will not be re-introduced until after a review in February, if even then. It is clear that lock-downs to control contagious diseases are like

Highlights December 15th is the start of the 45 day window to make or break Brazil’s first and only soybean crop and its first corn crop. Intense missile attacks on Ukraine’s utility infrastructure has knocked out electricity to more than half of the country’s businesses and citizens. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts 2023 world crude oil demand will increase by 1.7 million barrels per day as China rebounds from covid lock-downs. If so, 2023 daily crude consumpti

Highlights Early Monday news was China may announce ten COVID-19 easing measures as early as Wednesday, after three years of zero-tolerance measures; that news had crude oil, grains, soybeans higher yesterday morning. Just before the price dropped late yesterday morning, the news was released that, effective today, China would cut retail gasoline and diesel prices by about $62.51 per mt to support the economy. China’s crude refineries were ordered to maintain production and

Highlights Mexico's President Obrador clarified that the GMO corn import ban in 2024 would apply to human consumption corn, but GMO corn would still be allowed for animal feed. About half of Mexico’s corn imports are for human consumption. Expect more changes. Analysts expected the weekly US commercial (non-government owned) crude oil inventory report would show a decline of about 2.5 million barrels. However, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said the draw-down was 7.85

Highlights The railroad labor agreement is still being negotiated as another union reportedly rejected the proposed agreement over the weekend. It is remarkable how something as important as the nation’s railroads is so hush-hush. A railroad strike will be very ugly for prices for a week or two, but in the long run, it will not make any difference on demand. China’s Baiyun district in Guangzhou suffered a major covid outbreak, with three covid deaths over the weekend, the fir

Highlights The G7 will cap the price of Russian crude oil effective December 5th and the EU will ban Russian crude oil imports from the same date. That means the EU will lose 2.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil. The ban will be expanded to include oil products on February 5th, which will be tough for the already-tight diesel fuel market in Europe. The G7 has yet to come up with its maximum price allowed under the cap, and EU regulations necessary to navigate the

Tidbits Argentine hard (bread) wheat FOB price is $380 a mt; Russian wheat $315; Ukraine $290; French/European wheat $344, and US and Canadian at $415. As always, all the world’s cheap wheat has to be sold before North American wheat exports are tapped. Japan is the only substantial year-round wheat buyer of North American wheat because they will pay for quality. Note that 2023 will be the fourth consecutive year global wheat consumption will exceed global wheat production. W

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 126,000 mts of soybeans to China 198,000 mts of soybeans to Spain Tidbits For the week of October 25, the St. Louis barge spot (now, current) rate increased almost 22% from last week to $88.46 per ton this week. However, this rate is lower than the all-time peak of $105.85 per ton for the second week of this month. The U.S average diesel fuel price continued to rise for the third consecutive week to $5.341 per gal

Yield Report from Grand Forks County, Northeast North Dakota: "Best yielding beans, by far, I have ever grown. Yields are running 45 to 70 bushels." (State average 35 bushels) Thanks, Dexter Highlights A rumor late yesterday morning was Russia was close to agreeing to an extension of the Ukraine Grain Export corridor. That sent CBOT wheat from 12 cents higher to 12 cents lower. Tidbits Soybean crush futures made contract highs (again) yesterday. Vomitoxin in corn in the East

Yield Report from South Central Nebraska: "Normally, I apply 12 to 14 inches of water; did 14 to 16 this year. I started the pivots before I planted so I could get the planter in the ground. Irrigated corn about 10 bushels less than last year and dry land corn zero to 25 bushels. Bean yields are very disappointing. Kaapa Ethanol is paying 60 over the December at all three locations with free DP." Thanks, Josh. Basis Report: "The coops in our area are finally figuring out th