Argentine hard (bread) wheat FOB price is $380 a mt; Russian wheat $315; Ukraine $290; French/European wheat $344, and US and Canadian at $415. As always, all the world’s cheap wheat has to be sold before North American wheat exports are tapped. Japan is the only substantial year-round wheat buyer of North American wheat because they will pay for quality.
Note that 2023 will be the fourth consecutive year global wheat consumption will exceed global wheat production. With La Niña causing weather problems around the world for at least another four months, world wheat carryover will decline at a faster rate than the previous three years.
The water level in China’s Three Gorges Reservoir is the lowest level this month than any November since the reservoir was filled twelve years ago. The water level is nearly 50 feet (15 meters) lower than normal. Even though they do not export any, China grows more wheat than any country. Drought will substantially reduce China’s wheat carryover in 2023, which is currently more than they annually grow, so they will not starve, but they may import a substantial amount of wheat. Right now, USDA has China importing 9.5 million mt, about the same as the last two years.