BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Rain moved across ND and SD yesterday and delivered heavy rain and storms to already waterlogged Minnesota, where flooding is being reported along major rivers. The Mississippi River in St Paul is expected to reach minor flood stage in the next couple days.   The heat wave in drought-stricken Mexico will move north in a few days to bring dangerously high temperatures from Arizona to the Pacific Northwest this week. Temperatures are expected to reach triple digits (

Highlights Yesterday, OPEC+ extended its “voluntary” production cuts through 2025 with the exception of the UAE. Thus, the UAE will increase production by 300,000 barrels per day from January 2025 and all OPEC+ quota will be 39.725 million barrels per day. The increase will be carried out in stages, from January 2025 and until the end of September 2025.   Multiple countries in Asia will report today their manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for the continent's bigge

Highlights Yesterday’s Producer Price Index (PPI=inflation at the wholesale level) for April was up 0.5%. The market expected +0.3%. In March, the PPI was down 0.1%. The Fed has managed to create a weakening economy with high inflation.   Today we get the inflation rate at the retail level with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Market is looking for a 0.4% increase in CPI in April with the year inflation rate at 3.4%.   Yesterday, President Biden announced a bundle of steep tar

Highlights Biden said late yesterday he will withhold weapons from Israel if it invades Rafah. Most news reports state Israel’s military went into Rafah on Tuesday.    The main crude oil news yesterday was the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported in the morning an inventory draw-down of 1.4 million barrels for the week ending May 3rd, which was much different than last week’s build of 7.3 million barrels. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute estimated

Highlights The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced yesterday a tender to purchase 3.3 million barrels of crude oil for October delivery to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at a price no higher than $79 per barrel. To date, the DOE has bought a total of 32.3 million barrels of oil at an average price of $76.98.   World crude oil demand is expected to grow less this year than earlier estimates and output should grow faster than previously thought, the U.S.

Highlights December corn closed above its 100-day moving average on Thursday, which attracted more technical buying on Friday.   Non-farm payroll showed 175,000 jobs added in April vs expectations of 240,000 to 283,000. Unemployment is estimated unchanged at 3.8%, but it was up a bit at 3.9%. Both indicate the economy is not doing as well as expected. That poor economic news yesterday morning knocked crude oil from 60¢ higher to a dollar lower on the idea US crude consumption

Tidbits Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of 152,404 mts of old crop soybeans to Mexico.   Datagro expects to see Brazil’s April soybean exports at 10.65 mil mts vs. 14.05 in April 2023 and corn exports 25,000 mts vs. 176,000 mts in April 2023. Does that indicate a short safrinha crop coming? Not much old crop corn left? Maybe both? Maybe none of the above.   Brent Crude oil’s surge above $91 a barrel on escalating geopolitical tensions, WTI is above $86. The Departm

Highlights Yesterday’s end of the day comments from a grain merchandiser: "There was little fresh news today making it difficult to explain away the higher markets today."     And then he reports: "Wheat was the upside leader as Russia and Black Sea region is dry while France is too wet.   Weekly ethanol production was up 1.8% from the prior week and was up 7.0% from a year ago. Production was record high for the period averaging 1.073 million gallons per day.    Corn is seei

CBOT Grain, CME Livestock and Dairy & NYMEX Energy Markets are closed on Friday March 29. Trade resumes normal evening session on Sunday April 1. Highlights USDA reported all cotton planted area at 10.7 million acres, up 4% from last year. Upland area is estimated at 10.47 million acres, up 4%. American Pima area is estimated at 203,000 acres, up 38% from 2023.   The USDA also released its Quarterly Pig Crop Report yesterday. The winter pig crop was up 2% from last year even

Highlights OPEC+ members agreed yesterday to extend voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second quarter of 2024 as OPEC+ tries to counter concerns over poor global growth and rising crude production by non-members.   Chevron has suspended biodiesel production operations at its plants in Ralston, Iowa, and Madison, Wisconsin due to a lack of profitability. The two plants can collectively produce 50 million gallons of biodiesel per year.   The price

Tom Skilling has been a meteorologist on Chicago TV for 45 years. Today is his last day on the job for WGN. When ~4,500 people worked on the trading floor of the CBOT before the days of electronic trading, the hollering and screaming and flashing hand signals for buyers and sellers was an incredible site.   But when Tom's mid-day forecasts came on the dozens of TV sets near the trading pits, the sudden silence was one of wonders of the world. One could hear a pin drop as ever

Highlights Saudi Aramco on Sunday said it would cut crude oil prices $2 a barrel in February versus the Oman/Dubai regional benchmark from their January levels. Prices in northwest Europe and the Mediterranean will be down $1.50 to $2 a barrel versus the ICE Brent crude benchmark versus January prices.   After a summer rally attributed in large part to OPEC and Russia production cuts, crude prices set back sharply in the fourth quarter. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S.

Highlights Smithfield canceled its contracts with 26 US hog farms. Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of 372,000 mts of old crop soft red winter wheat and 136,000 mts of old soybeans to China Direct quote from www.oilprice.com : "Prices of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate were down nearly 4% on Wednesday as an unexpected and significant increase in U.S. gasoline inventories added to concerns about lagging demand. Wednesday’s prices reflect the lowest levels

USDA is now accepting applications for farm loans online: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/news-room/news-releases/2023/usda-now-accepting-applications-for-farm-loans-online Highlights Corn in Brazil is worth more to feeders and ethanol plants than it is worth at the ports. That should mean the end of Brazil’s corn exports for this marketing year. Brazil's southern state of Parana had the wettest Oct-Nov in a quarter century, almost 21 inches of rain (534 mm, ~70% above avg). Yester

Highlights OPEC agreed to reduce oil production at its meeting in Vienna yesterday. The crude market rallied sharply immediately after that announcement, but oil prices began to decline and then fell out-of-bed as it became clear that OPEC+ members had agreed to additional voluntary cuts  beginning in January. More obscure yet, the size of those cuts would be announced by each member instead of by the group.   The announced additional cuts in barrels per day were: Algeria 51,

Highlights Yesterday, the market saw some economic reports from Asia and the USA that were somewhat negative; stuff like US unemployment claims were more than expected. Some analysts predicted China’s crude oil demand will shrink and the rest of the world will reduce its demand for crude oil.     And then President Biden, immediately after concluding the 4-hour meeting China’s President Xi, tells the world that China’s president is a dictator.     Crude oil has lost 21% of it

Highlights Instead of writing about what caused the markets to fall out of bed yesterday and how terrible yesterday’s price action was for farmers, we will put that ugliness aside and sweep it away with some good news. January beans settled 18¢ below their high yesterday and down 2¢ on the day. That was very poor market action, but China solved that problem. After the close of the CBOT yesterday, Reuters News Service reported China bought 600,000 mts of US soybeans for shi

Received 6:40 AM yesterday, thanks, Jason: "CHS Fairmont, MN soybean basis firmed from -.20 to + .5 today. Thanks for the great info Wright on the Market team." Today is Friday and harvest weekend. Think pre-hedging this afternoon before the close. Highlights New unemployment claims were 198,000, 12,000 fewer than expected and strong Netflix earnings had Wall Street trading higher yesterday morning when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the labor market is so st

Highlights A sea of red (lower prices) across world stock markets and another surge in U.S. Treasury yields on Wednesday ensured a bearish open in Asia today. So far this marketing year, US ethanol production is above last year and the five year average while ethanol inventory is below last year and the five year average. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. Jim Jordan received two less votes for Speaker yesterday tha

Highlights OPEC members, Nigeria and Iran, have been cheating on their crude oil quota the past two months while other OPEC members did maintain reduced production. OPEC produced more crude in August than they did in July, but OPEC leaders (aka Saudi Arabia) swept that under the rug to keep prices on an upward trajectory. However, after the same two “villians” over produced again in September, the Saudis “blew the whistle” yesterday and crude oil prices slumped $2 and settled