BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Russian officials have halted the transport of loaded bushels sold by RIF, a top 2 exporter, due to quality issues.   Market advisor, Kevin Duling of Maupin, Oregon is a wheat guy for sure. He provided us with this information last evening: It was revealed Grain Flower, the 2nd largest Russian grain exporter, could not meet quality specs on over 1 mil mts of wheat with ships in port expecting to be loaded. The Russian government would not grant phytosanitary permit

Planting Intentions Survey At noon Eastern Time on Thursday, 28 March, the USDA will issue results of its survey of farmers planting intentions for corn, beans and spring wheat as well as the inventory of grains and oilseeds on hand as of March 1st. So, both new and old crops will get a major dose of information that could move the market sharply up or down.   CBOT will be closed on Good Friday, March 29. No markets Thursday evening. Trade resumes normal evening session on Ea

Highlights An early Monday morning shift in weather forecast increased precipitation the next 10 to 15 days for Mato Grosso, where most of Brazil’s safrinha corn and late planted beans were struggling with hot and dry conditions.   SAFRAS put Brazilian bean production at 148.6 mil. mt, (USDA 155) and the Brazilian bean harvest is 62.25% complete with some delays noted in RGDS due to too much rain.   Corn prices in Brazil were higher Monday supported by higher crude oil (Russi

Highlights Presidential elections have begun in Russia, voting will last 3 days. There are 4 candidates running in the election. According to the latest data, the level of support for Putin before the election was 82%. Tidbits Allendale’s farmer survey has US plantings of: Corn at 93.5 mil acres, down 1.2% from 2023 (USDA 91.0) Soybeans at 85.8 mil acres, up 2.7% (USDA 87.5) Wheat at 47.6 mil acres, down 3.9% (USDA 47.0)   The Producer Price Index (PPI), the measure of inflat

Highlights CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) production estimates were released yesterday morning: Soybean production: 146.8 mil mts, down 2.6 mil from last month and 8.2 mil below USDA. Corn production 112.7 mil mts, down 900,000 mts from Feb and 13.3 mil below USDA. Both estimates were smaller than the market expected.   The corn/bean ratio is at 2.51 bushels of corn to buy 1 bushel of beans, up from 2.45 to 1 on Feb 29. Normal ratio is 2.4 to 1. It means the market is trying to buy be

Tidbits Angie Setzer has been in the cash grain industry for over 18 years. She has dedicated her career to learning the ins and outs of the cash grain business from both the commercial and the farmer side, working to marry the two, teaching farmers to manage grain as an elevator would.  She left the elevator business to launch Consus in 2021. Angie also writes for Barchart on Sundays. The first part of her article yesterday covers the bean market news for the past six months

Tidbits On Friday’s S&D, USDA revised world corn production lower by 2.33 mil mt as production was lowered for Russia, South Africa, Ukraine and Mexico and usage was increased 1.48 mil. mt.  An increase to the carryin of 1.37 mil mt. for the current marketing year offset some of lower corn production and higher usage, resulting in world corn carryout down 2.43 mil. mts to 319.63 mil. mts, which is a 5 year high. Average price expected to be paid to farmers for 2023 crop corn

Tidbits USDA reported yesterday morning China canceled their purchase of 130,000 mts of old soft red winter wheat.   China’s exports and imports for the first two months of the year were above expectations. This is viewed as an indication that demand may be improving, and the Chinese government has been attempting to speed up its economy. Exports were up 7.1% from a year ago, while imports were up 3.5% as compared to the same period last year. Dr. Michael Cordonnier reports t

Highlights As of the close yesterday, farmers in the Sorriso area of Mato Grosso were looking at: A loss of $261.39 per hectare ($105.82 per acre) for corn. A profit of $217.42 per hectare ($88.02 per acre) for soybeans.   Do you think they are rushing to plant safrinha corn?   Eduardo Vanin: "Soybean farmer selling activity in Brazil remains robust. Brokers and traders estimate sales of 700,000 mts, marking the most significant one-day sales volume since last November. This

USDA will issue its monthly S&D Friday at 10 AM Mountain Time. It will be a non-event for US numbers. No production changes on US crops until May and domestic demand changes will most likely be unchanged as USDA historically waits until April to make demand changes after seeing the March Quarterly Inventory Report, which is released on the last business day of March.   World production is what to watch on Friday. With the USDA predicting more corn and beans from South America

Tomorrow begins the third year of the Russian/Ukraine war and Russia is gaining momentum.   When the Japanese attacked the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor in 1941, the US not only lost half its navy, but it was woefully unprepared for a war whereas the Japanese military had been expanding its empire throughout China and Southeast Asia since 1931. It took the USA 3 years and 8 months to destroy the Japanese Empire despite placing a priority on the defeat of Nazi Germany ahead

Highlights China returns to work today after their 15-day Lunar New Year Celebration. Reuters News Service reports there are signs that the China gloom and doom may be lifting, even if only temporarily. Equities have rebounded this year from five-year lows, and official figures on Sunday showed that tourism revenues in the Lunar New Year holidays were 47.3% more than last year and 7.7% more than pre-COVID levels of 2019.   The data will offer relief to financial policy makers

Highlights Yesterday morning, old crop corn and beans did  make new lows for 2024, extending the down trend since the spring 21 months ago. New crop corn (Dec) and beans (Nov) did not  make new lows.   March corn and March soybeans made key reversals yesterday, which is a respected technical trend indicator. A key reversal occurs when a commodity (or stock) makes a new low, but the settlement price is higher than the previous day’s high. Before you mortgage your house and buy

Highlights Early this morning, a land-based cruise missile launched from Houthi-controlled Yemen struck a commercial tanker vessel 60 nautical miles north of Bab al-Mandab Strait (Red Sea/Suez Canal area) causing a fire and damage but no casualties.   Yesterday’s mid-day weather model runs took quite a bit of the rain for Northern and Central Brazil out of the first and, to a lesser extent, the second week of the forecast and moved the rain to the third week out.     Yesterda

Upcoming S&D The USDA will issue its December S&D today at 10 AM Mountain Time. There will be no adjustment to US production (SOP for Dec S&D), but there may be adjustments to the demand side on the domestic S&D. The world S&D may have production and demand adjustments. Market-wise, this will be non-event, but if there is a surprise, it will be friendly for higher prices. Highlights CONAB lowered Brazil’s soybean production estimate from 162.42 mil mts to 160.18 (USDA 163).

USDA is now accepting applications for farm loans online: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/news-room/news-releases/2023/usda-now-accepting-applications-for-farm-loans-online Highlights Corn in Brazil is worth more to feeders and ethanol plants than it is worth at the ports. That should mean the end of Brazil’s corn exports for this marketing year. Brazil's southern state of Parana had the wettest Oct-Nov in a quarter century, almost 21 inches of rain (534 mm, ~70% above avg). Yester

Highlights Cash wheat export traders are saying China has probably bought more milling quality wheat this year than ever before. Their wheat crop problem was too much rain at harvest. The past few days, traders say China bought about 2 million mt of milling wheat from Australia and the same tonnage from France or the EU which probably put China wheat purchases at record large. Dr. Cordonnier reduced his corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil by 2 million mts each.

Highlights By a vote of 220 to 209, the House of Representatives elected a Speaker in the person of Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson, whose pedigree looks like Jim Jordan without as many political battle scars. He is against financial aid to Ukraine, abortion, gay marriage, wants to close the borders, forebid gender-related surgery and hormone treatment, prohibits mask mandates on airplanes, and tighten immigration standards. He probably was able to get enough votes because

Highlights A sea of red (lower prices) across world stock markets and another surge in U.S. Treasury yields on Wednesday ensured a bearish open in Asia today. So far this marketing year, US ethanol production is above last year and the five year average while ethanol inventory is below last year and the five year average. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. Jim Jordan received two less votes for Speaker yesterday tha

Tidbits Mark has a friend near Oto in Woodbury County, Iowa who has cut two fields of beans. The first was 15 bu/ac, the second field 35 bu/ac. The war continues to escalate. Fertilizer Between January and July 2023, the United States increased purchases of fertilizers from Russia to a record US$944 million according to RIA Novosti using US Statistical Service numbers. Russia became #2 fertilizer supplier to the United States. The value of Russian fertilizer imports to the U