BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Rice is the top competitor with wheat in the world marketplace and in the domestic markets of Asia. India and China are the world’s leading producers of rice and wheat. For three years, El Niño has battered Indian farmlands, causing prolonged droughts and significant decline in crop yields, including wheat and especially rice, a Kakinada-based rice exporter said. So, the return of La Niña is welcomed by farmers and grain merchants.   La Niña is expected to make a s

Highlights June CBOT options expire tomorrow. Yesterday, China soybean futures traded at highs for the year at the equivalent of $15.27 per bushel. The chatter yesterday was that as many as 8 shiploads of US soybeans were booked to be shipped out of the PNW ports to China.     Yes, we really think beans will get to $13+. Corn in China is in a nice uptrend, there is some reason for optimism:

Highlights Recent frosts in Ukraine have not caused significant damage to grain and oilseed crops, a state weather forecaster said on Tuesday.   Ukraine experienced several waves of frost between May 1 and May 16, said Tetiana Adamenko, head of the forecaster’s agriculture department, adding that May frosts are a common occurrence.   “There is some damage to early seedlings of corn and sunflower, but it is all very localized. As of today, we have no information that crops hav

Highlights Soybean open interest increased more than 25,000 contracts on Friday's rally. Only one day in the past year (Mid-Feb) was there a larger increase in soybean open interest. More friendly soybean news in today’s Weekly Basis.   While many analysts and cash grain merchandisers are bad mouthing the soybean price outlook because there are no US bean sales on the books to China. However, there have been 890.7 million new crop bushels booked for export and most of those b

Tidbits Open interest refers to the number of trade positions on the books. The past two days saw the largest increase in open interest of crude oil call options in history. More than 350,000 crude oil call positions were established, surpassing the record of 2019.   Israel will hold a meeting of the Military Cabinet of Ministers today. This will be the 3rd meeting since the attack by Iran over the weekend. The final decision on the military response is expected to be today.

Upcoming Reports CONAB is Brazil’s USDA and it will issue its monthly crop production report early Thursday morning followed by USDA’s at noon Eastern time. There are rumors in the market that CONAB's corn production numbers may be reduced much more than the market expects. Analysts say the USDA, on the other hand, is showing a “more optimistic scenario than reality” as Brazil has a very significant reduction of safrinha corn acres.   USDA's National Agricultural Statistical

Highlights StoneX’s fertilizer guy, Josh Linville, reported yesterday afternoon India shocked the global urea market by cutting their purchase in half, down from 724,000 mts to 340,000 mts. Seldom does India buy less than a million mts and often purchases ~1.5 million mts 8 to 10 times a year.   The May urea futures price (FOB NOLA) was down $30 per ton to $272.50 yesterday. There is no daily limit on urea futures. A month ago, May urea futures price was $340 per ton.      Ba

Highlights Yesterday’s end of the day comments from a grain merchandiser: "There was little fresh news today making it difficult to explain away the higher markets today."     And then he reports: "Wheat was the upside leader as Russia and Black Sea region is dry while France is too wet.   Weekly ethanol production was up 1.8% from the prior week and was up 7.0% from a year ago. Production was record high for the period averaging 1.073 million gallons per day.    Corn is seei

At 10 AM Mountain Time today the USDA will release its Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. This is the second most important USDA report of every year. As with most USDA reports, the market expected bearish news and priced-in bearish news the past two days. It is unlikely the USDA will produce numbers more bearish than what is reflected in the futures prices.   Today is the last business day of the week, the month, and the quarter. Crazy things can happen o

Highlights The weather forecast in South America was better for crops in some areas and worse in others, but the bottom line is the traders wanted to reduce their long positions with the USDA reports coming on Thursday that will impact old crop prices with the inventory report and new crop prices with the acreage report. We do not do any grain marketing before the report. We can see that the acres may be a bit bearish corn and inventory may be friendly for corn and beans. In

Highlights Russian officials have halted the transport of loaded bushels sold by RIF, a top 2 exporter, due to quality issues.   Market advisor, Kevin Duling of Maupin, Oregon is a wheat guy for sure. He provided us with this information last evening: It was revealed Grain Flower, the 2nd largest Russian grain exporter, could not meet quality specs on over 1 mil mts of wheat with ships in port expecting to be loaded. The Russian government would not grant phytosanitary permit

Planting Intentions Survey At noon Eastern Time on Thursday, 28 March, the USDA will issue results of its survey of farmers planting intentions for corn, beans and spring wheat as well as the inventory of grains and oilseeds on hand as of March 1st. So, both new and old crops will get a major dose of information that could move the market sharply up or down.   CBOT will be closed on Good Friday, March 29. No markets Thursday evening. Trade resumes normal evening session on Ea

Highlights An early Monday morning shift in weather forecast increased precipitation the next 10 to 15 days for Mato Grosso, where most of Brazil’s safrinha corn and late planted beans were struggling with hot and dry conditions.   SAFRAS put Brazilian bean production at 148.6 mil. mt, (USDA 155) and the Brazilian bean harvest is 62.25% complete with some delays noted in RGDS due to too much rain.   Corn prices in Brazil were higher Monday supported by higher crude oil (Russi

Highlights Presidential elections have begun in Russia, voting will last 3 days. There are 4 candidates running in the election. According to the latest data, the level of support for Putin before the election was 82%. Tidbits Allendale’s farmer survey has US plantings of: Corn at 93.5 mil acres, down 1.2% from 2023 (USDA 91.0) Soybeans at 85.8 mil acres, up 2.7% (USDA 87.5) Wheat at 47.6 mil acres, down 3.9% (USDA 47.0)   The Producer Price Index (PPI), the measure of inflat

Highlights CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) production estimates were released yesterday morning: Soybean production: 146.8 mil mts, down 2.6 mil from last month and 8.2 mil below USDA. Corn production 112.7 mil mts, down 900,000 mts from Feb and 13.3 mil below USDA. Both estimates were smaller than the market expected.   The corn/bean ratio is at 2.51 bushels of corn to buy 1 bushel of beans, up from 2.45 to 1 on Feb 29. Normal ratio is 2.4 to 1. It means the market is trying to buy be

Tidbits Angie Setzer has been in the cash grain industry for over 18 years. She has dedicated her career to learning the ins and outs of the cash grain business from both the commercial and the farmer side, working to marry the two, teaching farmers to manage grain as an elevator would.  She left the elevator business to launch Consus in 2021. Angie also writes for Barchart on Sundays. The first part of her article yesterday covers the bean market news for the past six months

Tidbits On Friday’s S&D, USDA revised world corn production lower by 2.33 mil mt as production was lowered for Russia, South Africa, Ukraine and Mexico and usage was increased 1.48 mil. mt.  An increase to the carryin of 1.37 mil mt. for the current marketing year offset some of lower corn production and higher usage, resulting in world corn carryout down 2.43 mil. mts to 319.63 mil. mts, which is a 5 year high. Average price expected to be paid to farmers for 2023 crop corn

Tidbits USDA reported yesterday morning China canceled their purchase of 130,000 mts of old soft red winter wheat.   China’s exports and imports for the first two months of the year were above expectations. This is viewed as an indication that demand may be improving, and the Chinese government has been attempting to speed up its economy. Exports were up 7.1% from a year ago, while imports were up 3.5% as compared to the same period last year. Dr. Michael Cordonnier reports t

Highlights As of the close yesterday, farmers in the Sorriso area of Mato Grosso were looking at: A loss of $261.39 per hectare ($105.82 per acre) for corn. A profit of $217.42 per hectare ($88.02 per acre) for soybeans.   Do you think they are rushing to plant safrinha corn?   Eduardo Vanin: "Soybean farmer selling activity in Brazil remains robust. Brokers and traders estimate sales of 700,000 mts, marking the most significant one-day sales volume since last November. This

USDA will issue its monthly S&D Friday at 10 AM Mountain Time. It will be a non-event for US numbers. No production changes on US crops until May and domestic demand changes will most likely be unchanged as USDA historically waits until April to make demand changes after seeing the March Quarterly Inventory Report, which is released on the last business day of March.   World production is what to watch on Friday. With the USDA predicting more corn and beans from South America