BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Yesterday’s end of the day comments from a grain merchandiser: "There was little fresh news today making it difficult to explain away the higher markets today."     And then he reports: "Wheat was the upside leader as Russia and Black Sea region is dry while France is too wet.   Weekly ethanol production was up 1.8% from the prior week and was up 7.0% from a year ago. Production was record high for the period averaging 1.073 million gallons per day.    Corn is seei

At 10 AM Mountain Time today the USDA will release its Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. This is the second most important USDA report of every year. As with most USDA reports, the market expected bearish news and priced-in bearish news the past two days. It is unlikely the USDA will produce numbers more bearish than what is reflected in the futures prices.   Today is the last business day of the week, the month, and the quarter. Crazy things can happen o

Planting Intentions Survey At noon Eastern Time on Thursday, 28 March, the USDA will issue results of its survey of farmers planting intentions for corn, beans and spring wheat as well as the inventory of grains and oilseeds on hand as of March 1st. So, both new and old crops will get a major dose of information that could move the market sharply up or down.   CBOT will be closed on Good Friday, March 29. No markets Thursday evening. Trade resumes normal evening session on Ea

Highlights 247AG, after predicting Brazil’s weather the next 10 days, reports:   "Can it get worse? Most definitely. Just getting started. Safrinha crop will be off by at least 20%, if not 30% or more."   Corn futures in Brazil continue to rise, buoyed by the weather forecast for April.   The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) will increase the daily limit of vessels through the canal from 24 to 27 on March 18th. Three Panamax ships would hold 6.5 mil. bushels of corn.

Highlights As of the close yesterday, farmers in the Sorriso area of Mato Grosso were looking at: A loss of $261.39 per hectare ($105.82 per acre) for corn. A profit of $217.42 per hectare ($88.02 per acre) for soybeans.   Do you think they are rushing to plant safrinha corn?   Eduardo Vanin: "Soybean farmer selling activity in Brazil remains robust. Brokers and traders estimate sales of 700,000 mts, marking the most significant one-day sales volume since last November. This

Highlights The number of CBOT contracts that will be assigned today for delivery tomorrow were announced last evening. If you want price to go higher, you want to see very few to no deliveries, but nothing is 100% in this business. Spring Wheat 591 contracts to 20 Feb 2024 KC Wheat 56 to 13 Feb 2024 Chi Wheat 484 to 22 Feb 2024 Soybeans 702 to 26 Feb 2024, pretty “strong hands”       Soy Meal1 to 18 Aug 2023 Soy Oil 271 to 1 Feb 2024, 234 contracts went to “strong hands”     

Highlights March options go off the board at the close on Friday, February 23. First notice day for March grains is Thursday, February 29. Be out of longs by the close of business on Wednesday to avoid risk participating in the delivery process.   The U.S. government said on Thursday it approved a request from Midwestern governors allowing expanded sales of gasoline with higher blends of ethanol in their states, starting in 2025, one year later than originally proposed. The g

Highlights Yesterday morning, CHS’s comments started with this paragraph: "The USDA released their long-term projections yesterday. The market seems to be reacting to the yield projections for all three of our major commodities."   Our first thought was 183.5 bushels of corn per acre yield in 2024 is not reasonable as CHS reported it, even though the market expects negative numbers from USDA this morning. Apparently, CHS used last year's report for their commentary by mistake

Tidbits The USDA will release its monthly US and world S&D today at 10 AM Mountain Time. CONAB, Brazil’s USDA, will also release its latest production estimates this morning several hours before USDA as will StatsCanada issue its grain inventory reports.   Yesterday, March cocoa was up $190 and July was up $130 per mt. Soybeans Crush and Exports Commentary In February 1972, Nixon visited Communist China and sold them massive amounts of wheat, and he did the same in Moscow thr

Highlights Front month corn and beans settled slightly higher yesterday after trading modestly lower most of the day and after a key reversal on Tuesday. From a technical perspective, a positive development.    The US Census Bureau is the final word on all numbers and today the Census Bureau will report the December crush numbers. October 2023 was the largest monthly soy crush ever for the USA at 201 mil bu, but the market expects the December soy crush will be 206.1 mil. bu.

Highlights China reduced the required cash reserve of deposits for the nation’s banks, which allows the banks to loan a higher percentage of their deposits. This action makes more money available for businesses and consumers which will stimulate the economy and increase demand for just about everything. This move is projected to inject about $140 billion of cash into the economy.   The Suez Canal and Red Sea area of conflict gets more dangerous every day.      Yesterday, the

Market Comment Last evening Kevin Duling sent his clients his weekly letter. Here are his highlights: "Did we cross the threshold this week? Did we hit the point where everyone is ready to throw in the towel and give up any hope of any kind of rally in anything? I cannot put my finger on it, but after talking to a few folks this morning, most can sense a change. I felt it last night after sending out that YouTube video. In my case, it was a relief because I set up market boun

Highlights CONAB put Brazil’s bean crop at 155.3 mil mts, down from their December estimate of 160 (USDA 161 in Dec). Their corn production is 117.6 mil. mts, down from 118.5 (USDA 129 in Dec).   Forty-two days ago, Kalmbach Feeds in Upper Sandusky, Ohio corn basis (and Poet’s at Fostoria) was -60Z (60¢ under Dec corn futures). Today, Kaklmbach offered one of our clients 0H (zero basis to the March futures). March corn was 25¢ over the December corn on November 29th. That is

Highlights The weather outlook for Brazil’s main growing area looks to be turning drier and warmer next week. Watch the number of rain days in the 10 day forecast we report every day. The first two locations, Rondonópolis and Campo Grande, are in the central part of Brazil where most of the beans and corn are grown.     India is the world’s largest user of urea and it imports ~30% of its urea, which makes it the world’s largest importer of urea. What India pays for urea is th

Highlights The majority of the weather forecasts predict good rains in the dry soybean areas of Brazil beginning as soon as Sunday. Here is the wettest example: "Widespread rainfall over the past five days across the Brazilian soy belt. Models have accurately predicted relief for crops. GFS calls for high precip volumes coming in the next 10 days, with over 10 inches for Mato Grosso, major producing state. Cooling temperatures are maintaining adequate soil moisture for crops

Tidbits There was no USDA export announcement of a large sale of any commodity during the CBOT breakfast break yesterday morning. That apparently was the cause for the market trading smartly lower when trading resumed at 8:30 Central. A large export sales announcement 9 of the past 10 days coupled with the worst growing season in Brazil since they started planting beans 60 years ago, was not enough for the market to keep a positive price outlook.   The weather models turned a

Highlights Argentina devalued its currency while everyone was asleep Wednesday morning, which is when a devaluation should be done. The Argentina Peso was devalued by 54%; now 801 pesos per US$. The market was afraid the devaluation would cause a lot of Argentine agriculture products to hit the international market. That could not happen. While Argentina does have a little wheat to sell, it has been importing corn and beans from Brazil for many months. Plus, export permits we

Highlights Smithfield canceled its contracts with 26 US hog farms. Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of 372,000 mts of old crop soft red winter wheat and 136,000 mts of old soybeans to China Direct quote from www.oilprice.com : "Prices of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate were down nearly 4% on Wednesday as an unexpected and significant increase in U.S. gasoline inventories added to concerns about lagging demand. Wednesday’s prices reflect the lowest levels

Highlights Eduardo Vanin 29 November 2023: "Brazilian corn is getting really expensive. Tenders, purchase tenders, went out to South Korea in the last two weeks for December-January shipment at destination prices equivalent to Fob Santos at +80H (Fob premium 80 cents per bushel above the March contract at CBOT)...   For the off-season we are hearing business every day in Mato Grosso on a basis well above export parity as well. It seems that the reduction in area and technolog

Highlights OPEC has postponed their Sunday meeting to consider production cuts. That news caused crude oil to sell-off over $3 yesterday before recovering nicely by the close, but weaker over night.   Edurado Vanin, an export grain and soybean manager in Brazil reported yesterday China continues to buy US soybeans. He said this week China is looking to buy 8-10 shiploads (~400,000 to 500,000 mts) of US soybeans. Yesterday, brokers in various Asian countries were asking about