BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights IKAR increased its Russian wheat production estimate 500,000 mts to 82.0 mil. mts. The trade was looking for IKAR to lower production to as low as 75 million.   SovEcon, aka Andrey Sizov, puts total Russian grain production at 127.4 mil. mts, down 12% from last year. Wheat is expected to be down 13% at 80.7 mil. mts and corn down 12% at 14.6 mil. mts.   In hindsight, it appears Monday’s CBOT weakness was caused by the forecast that this week’s rain in the Western C

Highlights The US jobs data yesterday morning was much better than expected, which is very bad for commodities because good economic news means higher interest rates for a longer time. That means a stronger dollar, which makes US exports more expensive for foreign buyers. The US added 272,000 jobs in May; the market expected just 182,000. The unemployment rate was up 0.1% to 4.0% from last month. The average hourly earnings were up 0.4% from 0.2% in April.     Yesterday, Braz

Highlights Milling wheat in Paris was up $8 per mt (~21.5¢ per bu) due to expectations Russia’s wheat crop will be reduced to the low 80 something mil. mts., possibly less than 80. That crop is made or lost in June, harvest begins on or about July 1st.   247AG reports Mexico is buying so much USA corn because there are experiencing their worst drought since 2011.       Eduardo Vanin of Agrinvest Commodities summarized his conversation yesterday with farmers in Brazil: "Produc

Highlights We had good news about the US economy yesterday morning. S&P Global (an independent agency) reported yesterday morning that its U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks both the manufacturing and services sectors, jumped to 54.4 this month. That is the highest level since April 2022 and well above 51.3 in April 2024.   A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index little changed at 51.1. The sharp increase

Highlights December corn closed above its 100-day moving average on Thursday, which attracted more technical buying on Friday.   Non-farm payroll showed 175,000 jobs added in April vs expectations of 240,000 to 283,000. Unemployment is estimated unchanged at 3.8%, but it was up a bit at 3.9%. Both indicate the economy is not doing as well as expected. That poor economic news yesterday morning knocked crude oil from 60¢ higher to a dollar lower on the idea US crude consumption

Tidbits Open interest refers to the number of trade positions on the books. The past two days saw the largest increase in open interest of crude oil call options in history. More than 350,000 crude oil call positions were established, surpassing the record of 2019.   Israel will hold a meeting of the Military Cabinet of Ministers today. This will be the 3rd meeting since the attack by Iran over the weekend. The final decision on the military response is expected to be today.

Highlights StoneX’s fertilizer guy, Josh Linville, reported yesterday afternoon India shocked the global urea market by cutting their purchase in half, down from 724,000 mts to 340,000 mts. Seldom does India buy less than a million mts and often purchases ~1.5 million mts 8 to 10 times a year.   The May urea futures price (FOB NOLA) was down $30 per ton to $272.50 yesterday. There is no daily limit on urea futures. A month ago, May urea futures price was $340 per ton.      Ba

Tidbits Canada just increased the Carbon tax by 23%. Farmers are unhappy. Brazil's Politics Political unrest is growing in many around the world and that includes Brazil, the world’s leading exporter of corn, soybeans, beef, sugar, orange juice, and coffee.     Lula da Silva (Lula) has been Brazil’s 39th President since 1 January 2023. Lula was also the 35th president from 2003 to 2010. He is a leftist politician. His first presidency was marked by the consolidation of social

Highlights Brazil’s soybean basis for export shipment has firmed 92¢ from the end of January to this weekend. At 2¢ under the May futures, the bean basis has never been this firm during April, finishing the last 25% of harvest, and the supply pipeline has always been chock full of soybeans. Not so this year. Where are those 155 million mts of soybeans the USDA sees?     The USA is on high alert and preparing for a possible attack by Iran targeting Israeli or American assets i

At 10 AM Mountain Time today the USDA will release its Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. This is the second most important USDA report of every year. As with most USDA reports, the market expected bearish news and priced-in bearish news the past two days. It is unlikely the USDA will produce numbers more bearish than what is reflected in the futures prices.   Today is the last business day of the week, the month, and the quarter. Crazy things can happen o

Highlights An early Monday morning shift in weather forecast increased precipitation the next 10 to 15 days for Mato Grosso, where most of Brazil’s safrinha corn and late planted beans were struggling with hot and dry conditions.   SAFRAS put Brazilian bean production at 148.6 mil. mt, (USDA 155) and the Brazilian bean harvest is 62.25% complete with some delays noted in RGDS due to too much rain.   Corn prices in Brazil were higher Monday supported by higher crude oil (Russi

Tidbits Angie Setzer has been in the cash grain industry for over 18 years. She has dedicated her career to learning the ins and outs of the cash grain business from both the commercial and the farmer side, working to marry the two, teaching farmers to manage grain as an elevator would.  She left the elevator business to launch Consus in 2021. Angie also writes for Barchart on Sundays. The first part of her article yesterday covers the bean market news for the past six months

Tidbits On Friday’s S&D, USDA revised world corn production lower by 2.33 mil mt as production was lowered for Russia, South Africa, Ukraine and Mexico and usage was increased 1.48 mil. mt.  An increase to the carryin of 1.37 mil mt. for the current marketing year offset some of lower corn production and higher usage, resulting in world corn carryout down 2.43 mil. mts to 319.63 mil. mts, which is a 5 year high. Average price expected to be paid to farmers for 2023 crop corn

Tidbits USDA reported yesterday morning China canceled their purchase of 130,000 mts of old soft red winter wheat.   China’s exports and imports for the first two months of the year were above expectations. This is viewed as an indication that demand may be improving, and the Chinese government has been attempting to speed up its economy. Exports were up 7.1% from a year ago, while imports were up 3.5% as compared to the same period last year. Dr. Michael Cordonnier reports t

Highlights As of the close yesterday, farmers in the Sorriso area of Mato Grosso were looking at: A loss of $261.39 per hectare ($105.82 per acre) for corn. A profit of $217.42 per hectare ($88.02 per acre) for soybeans.   Do you think they are rushing to plant safrinha corn?   Eduardo Vanin: "Soybean farmer selling activity in Brazil remains robust. Brokers and traders estimate sales of 700,000 mts, marking the most significant one-day sales volume since last November. This

USDA will issue its monthly S&D Friday at 10 AM Mountain Time. It will be a non-event for US numbers. No production changes on US crops until May and domestic demand changes will most likely be unchanged as USDA historically waits until April to make demand changes after seeing the March Quarterly Inventory Report, which is released on the last business day of March.   World production is what to watch on Friday. With the USDA predicting more corn and beans from South America

Tom Skilling has been a meteorologist on Chicago TV for 45 years. Today is his last day on the job for WGN. When ~4,500 people worked on the trading floor of the CBOT before the days of electronic trading, the hollering and screaming and flashing hand signals for buyers and sellers was an incredible site.   But when Tom's mid-day forecasts came on the dozens of TV sets near the trading pits, the sudden silence was one of wonders of the world. One could hear a pin drop as ever

First notice day for deliveries on March CBOT contracts is this Thursday, which is usually an up day for markets after (usually) a down day the previous day as all the holders of long positions in the March futures are liquidating to avoid being assigned bushels. Translation: Your futures broker and your merchandiser want you to price or roll all March long positions before the close tomorrow. Highlights More scuttlebutt Monday about the possibility of more corn exports to Ch

CBOT options expire next Friday. Grain and soybean complex futures tend to go down into option expiration day because there are so many more call option on the books than puts. Tidbits Producer price index (PPI) is the measure of inflation, at the wholesale level. In January, the PPI was up 0.3%, triple the expected increase of just 0.1%. This is another reason to not expect interest rates to come down anytime soon.   Beans were lower for the 14th time in 15 weeks. Corn was l

AG Outlook Forum USDA's 100th Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, Cultivating the Future  will take place this Thursday and Friday (Feb 15-16) at the Crystal City Gateway Marriott in Arlington, VA.   USDA describes the Outlook Forum: With over 30 sessions and 120 speakers, the forum offers a rich and diverse program covering a range of timely topics such as commodity markets, trade, technology, climate change and more.   Roger describes it as a very expensive dog and pony show