Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

World Free-On-Board Grain & Oilseed Prices for March 21, 2026

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 45,577, -981 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $98.09, -1.22. Dollar Index settled at 99.5, -1.00. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,056, +28. Corn May futures settled at $4.65½, -1¾¢ for the week. December corn settl

Tidbits Crude oil: Late Friday, President Trump issued a 30-day sanctions waiver for the purchase of Iranian oil already at sea, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. The waiver applies to oil loaded on any vessel, including sanctioned tankers, on or before 20 March and unloaded by 19 April, according to the Office of Foreign Assets Control. It is the third time the U.S. has temporarily waived sanctions on oil since the start of the war. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wrig

On April 21st, 2022, September 2022 CBOT wheat futures settled 20 cents lower at $10.75¼. The $10 September wheat put option premium should have increased 6½ cents (delta times 20 cents). However, it increased about half that much. See the price chart below. The $9 September put premium should have increased by a little more than 3½ cents (delta times 20 cents), but it lost a quarter cent! Clearly, the option traders are bullish wheat and many traders realized that the big

When Does A Put Option Have No Potential Value? Lesson 4 option lesson ended with the question, if September wheat went to $25 in June, when would the September $10 put options have no value? Was it when the $10 put become worthless? Meaning the option could not be sold because no one would pay even a fraction of a cent for it? No. Was it when the wheat futures hit $25? No. No matter how high futures price goes, all put options will be “alive” until the end the lasty trading

Tidbits Iran has adopted a strategy to undermine the global economic system to force the U.S. and Israel to stop their attacks. Iran has repeatedly attacked refineries and oil fields across the Middle East and has succeeded to seal the Strait of Hormuz to keep crude oil, natural gas, and fertilizer from flowing into the world marketplace. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more likely the lack of fertilizer will produce food shortages around the world. Iran

Tidbits U.S. Acres: S&P Global Energy raised its corn plantings forecast to 95.2 million acres from its January projection of 95 million acres. USDA’s 2025 planted acres were 98.8 million. S&P projected U.S. 2026 soybean plantings at 85 million acres, up from its January forecast of 84.5 million and up from the 81.2 million acres seeded in 2025. The firm also projected total U.S. wheat plantings for 2026 at 44.050 million acres, 40,000 acres above its January projection but d

September CBOT wheat settled at $11.05 on 19 April 2022, down 18¼ cents. The previous day, that wheat futures price was up 22¼ cents, so the premiums of the puts were down on 18 April 2022. The lower futures price increased the value of all puts on the 19 April 2002. A put option gives the buyer the right to sell futures at a set futures price, aka the strike price. As the futures price moves lower, every put option increases in value. The September 2022 $10 put gained $237.

Tidbits The Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged yesterday afternoon, as was expected. Flash sale: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of new crop soybean meal to unknown. Oil exports through Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port on ‌the Red Sea are projected to reach a high of 3.8 million barrels per day this month. Average loadings from that port rose to 2.6 million bpd so far in March, up from 1.4 ​million bpd in February and 1.3 million bpd in January.

Since May Corn broke to the upside from the upsloping channel on March 5th, the buyers have been consistent. It appears that the bulls want tp print new highs up above the 476.0 high price marked a week ago Monday. There are several levels from old highs to the left which will promote at some selling. These price targets are 476.0, 488.0, and 496.0. Please study the May Corn chart below to understand how these old high marks will affect future price. Brazil Crop Disease Mitig

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change

Tidbits Brazil’s ethanol production is forecast to rise by some 4 billion liters (+11%) in the 2026/27 season from a year earlier, which would set a record level, a statement signed by a number of local industry lobbies said on Monday. Brazil is expected to produce 36.66 billion liters of ethanol in the 2025/26 season, according to the country’s national crop agency Conab. Global edible oil markets are behaving unpredictably as energy supply disruptions from the Middle East w

Tidbits Soybeans & China: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview yesterday morning that the Sunday and Monday talks with China in Paris had been ‘very good,’ adding that the U.S. continues to maintain a stable relationship with Beijing. However, President Trump said his meeting with China’s President Xi planned to begin on 31 March may be postponed due to “logistical” problems. We take that to mean he is too busy with Iran and crude oil flow. The soybean market

Tidbits Brazilian soybeans: The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAPA) of Brazil has relaxed the issuance of Phytosanitary Certificates and resumed accepting surveyor samples. However, MAPA added a series of procedures and conditions: A Vigiagro (Brazilian federal health) inspector will personally accompany 1 out of every 10 vessels delivering soybeans to China. The inspector will personally collect the sample. The MAPA memo does not specify how or where the inspector w

World Free-On-Board Grain & Oilseed Prices for March 14, 2026

Elliot wave impulses can be 5, 9, or even 13 waves or separate legs. It appears that the front month (May) of SWR Wheat is working on this 13th wave higher, and it could be rallying to test old highs from June 2024 close to $7.00. Please study the SRW Wheat continuation daily chart below. Brazil crops: Brazil’s soybean production has doubled in the last 20 years, but its corn production has tripled. Twenty-five years ago, Brazil was a net importer of corn. During the 2023-24

This is the third installment of a series of educational explanations about put options. Even though most of you do not grow wheat, you can enhance your marketing profits by learning how put options work and what they can do for you. Now is the time to expand your understanding of marketing tools before the 2026 growing season for corn and beans. In January 2022, we had clients with July 2022 HTA wheat contracts a little above $8. Because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 46,558, -943 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $99.31, +8.04. Dollar Index settled at 100.5, +1.65. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,028, +18. Corn May futures settled at $4.67¼, +6¾¢ for the week. Dec

Tidbits Russia was selling oil at just $50 a barrel to India and China. Now that India has a waiver to buy Russian gas and oil, Russia is telling India it will not give any more discounts. Russia is charging India $90 a barrel according to energy expert Amos Hochstein. Many producers of crude oil like to lock in a profitable price for future production when possible. Most producers know within a few bucks what their cost of production will be for the year ahead because most

Tidbits U.S. and Chinese trade officials will meet in Paris tomorrow and Monday to lay the groundwork for the summit between President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Bloomberg reports topics of discussion include tariffs, fentanyl, Taiwan, and soybean purchases. Crude oil: Saudi Arabia is flanked by the Red Sea on the west and the Persian Gulf on the east, north of Strait of Hormuz. Satellites that track ship transponders show a massive number of vessels are now he