BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Several of our Eastern Corn Belt clients informed us yesterday afternoon and evening that the wind on the wet corn stalks really knocked a lot of corn down late Friday to Saturday morning. Bob told us the Case IH dealer in Urbana of Champaign County, Ohio sold two corn reels yesterday morning.       Soybean yields from about a dozen farms in northeast Illinois range from 25.4 to 65.1. Three in the 20's, one 39 bu, three in the 40's, one 53.7, and two in the 60's. T

Tidbits Yesterday, China announced more stimulus measures to try to reach a 2024 economic growth target of 5%. China added ~$284 billion equivalent in bonds and cut bank reserve requirement ratios by 50 basis points. The three-month interest rate was down to 1.5%, and their one-year interest rate is now at 2%. By comparison, the one-year interest rate here in the U.S. for government one year T-Bills is at 3.96%.   Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 20,000 mts o

Highlights This is Friday before a harvest weekend. Look at the weather across the Corn Belt and decide if pre-hedging pressure is a reason for you to make a minor adjustment to your marketing plan for the day. Also, the USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks Report is Monday at 10 AM Mountain Time.      Chinese leaders pledged to deploy “necessary fiscal spending” to meet their economic growth target of 5%. There are reports that China is considering injecting 1 trillion yuan of capita

Highlights The US Congress did pass a temporary funding bill yesterday to keep the US government operating until December 20. It is assumed President Biden will sign it since all Democrats in the Congress voted for it.   Grain workers at Canada’s biggest grain loading port did go on strike Tuesday. Vancouver port handled about 52% of grain produced in Canada last year.   About 45,000 dockworkers at every major eastern and Gulf coast port are scheduled to strike midnight 30 Se

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring) for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close  Tuesday, September 24 , 2024: December corn settled yesterday at $4.11¾, -¾¢ since last Tuesday. The past 7 day

Highlights After cutting interest rates 10 basis points Monday, yesterday China’s Central Bank presented the largest stimulus package since the pandemic to bolster economic growth in the country, lowering borrowing costs, cutting mortgage interest rates, smaller bank reserves, free money for certain industries and groups of people, etc. Their stocks and bonds ripped to their highest trade in more than two years, which contributed greatly to higher CBOT commodities yesterday m

Highlights There is another tropical storm that will likely become a hurricane in the Gulf to disrupt crude oil production.   Both wars escalated a bit more yesterday. Israel said their air strikes hit 1,300 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, where health officials said 356 people were killed and 1,246 people were injured yesterday. The Biden Administration announced an additional 40,000 US troops to the northern border of Israel.   Growth in India's business activity slowed to a

Highlights Monday’s corn and bean trade will most likely be dominated by weekend harvest yield reports. Here is a start:   Dave in Northeast Illinois: "We have cut about a third of our beans; they are just not there, period. Yes, everyone has that one good field. We have cut more mid-40 beans than over 50; 9 to 10% moisture."   Jason Britt, President of U.S. Commodities in Kansas City: "Hearing more soybean yields that are "disappointing". In no way a disaster, but the poor f

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 42,063, +669.58 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $71.25, +2.01. Dollar Index  settled at 100.74, -0.37. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,977, +87 for the week. Corn December futures  at $4.01¾, -11½¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = Dec; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over December futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cas

Highlights The market action this week will be dominated by the looming:  Dock workers’ strike on the US East and Gulf Coasts where 5 of the 10 busiest ports in North America are located. US government shutdown 1 Oct due to a lack of funding being approved by Congress and the President.   The expectation of either happening will be negative for grains, but much worse for the stock markets. Those of you with a stock portfolio (which includes a 401K or IRA) should seriously con

Highlights Oil prices posted a second weekly gain as bullish sentiment builds and the prospect of a prolonged price rally becomes increasingly likely according to oilprice.com  analysts.   The fact that the US Federal Reserve has at last initiated a new cycle of monetary easing should have prompted a stronger market response. With a weaker dollar and an improved macro risk outlook, next week could see further upside as crude oil inventories in the United States have dropped t

Highlights The International Grains Council (IGC) predicts record large global grain production and record large global consumption for the 2024-25 marketing year. More importantly, world carryovers (aka ending stocks) are projected at a 10-year low.   IGC’s report on Wednesday listed total grains (wheat and coarse grains) output at 2.315 billion mts and consumption at 2.325 billion mts with the carryover down to 581 million mts, the lowest since 2014-15.   The records are fo

Highlights The Federal Reserve reduced the Fed Fund Interest Rate by 50 basis points. Eleven or the 12 board members voted to reduce the interest rate by a half percent. The outlook closing said the Fed expects to reduce the interest rate at least another half percent before the end of 2024.   The Fed referenced the growth of the global and US economy is stable, inflation is coming down, and the labor market is still solid. Powell said the half point cut should send a message

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring) for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close  Tuesday, September 17 , 2024: December corn settled yesterday at $4.12½, +8¼¢ since last Tuesday. The past 7 da

Highlights Today at 1 PM Central the Federal Reserve will announce its decision about an interest rate cut. The market has priced-in a 35% probability of a 25 basis point cut (¼%) and 65% probability of a 50 basis point (½%) cut. We think the market is overly optimistic based on the facts of inflation versus job creation. If the Fed wants to play politics, they will go with a half percent cut or maybe a 75 basis point cut, which would be bullish commodities and the equity mar

Highlights Compared to July, the NOPA August crush decreased 14% to 158.008 million bu. The market expected 171.325! The August crush was down 2% from a year ago. This is the lowest August total since 2017 and the lowest monthly total since September 2021. Soybean crush for marketing year just completed set monthly records for 10 out of the 12 months.    The soy oil inventory on August 31st was 1.138 billion pounds, down from 1.499 billion last month. The market expected 1.35

Highlights Brazil’s Supreme Court on Sunday authorized the government to exempt spending on wildfires and droughts in the Amazon and Pantanal regions from this year’s fiscal target as the country grapples with the economic impacts of its worst drought on record.   The decision clears the way for the government to take action if it submits an executive order to Congress requesting extraordinary measures to address the situation.   According to the National Center for Monitorin

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 41,394, +1,048.37 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $69.24, +1.08. Dollar Index  settled at 101.11, -0.08. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,890, -51 for the week. Corn December futures  at $4.13¼, +7¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = Dec; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over December futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cas

Highlights It is unusual that no rain has fallen nor predicted by the middle of September for Rondonópolis, an area in Brazil's top grain producing state of Mato Grosso in the heart of its prime soybean and corn area. Rain has fallen the past few days in the far north and west areas of Mato Grosso.     We report daily the number of days rain is expected in the ten day forecast for Rondonópolis, which normally receives sporadic showers 10 to 14 days before the rainy season beg

Highlights The supply of US refinery products in the US Gulf Coast, especially the 3 million barrel per day Louisiana refining capacity, has been largely unaffected by Hurricane Francine, with Shell’s Norco and Citgo’s Lake Charles refinery reporting no damage and returning to normal operations.   A large amount of Libyan production remains shut-down after UN-brokered talks have collapsed; production is now 1.5 million barrels per day.   The following chart is the inventory o