BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Crude oil futures gapped a dollar lower and traded as much as $4.00 lower last evening on the relatively “peaceful” Saturday attack by Israel on Iran. Last evening was the lowest trade in December crude futures since 1 October.   India’s crude oil demand will increase 4% during the final quarter of 2024 amid their festival season that also coincides with increased agricultural activity after the monsoon season, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights, as gasoline a

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 42,114, -1,161.51 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $71.69, +2.35. Dollar Index  settled at 104.32, +0.86. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,410, -166 for the week. Corn December futures  at $4.15¼, +10½¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = Dec; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over December futures) (Futures price + Basis =

Q&A: Trading Thursday, 24 October 2024:  "Good evening, I have a few questions.      Are there any calls for soybeans that look as good as the March call for corn?   Also, I assume you can sell these calls any time before the expiration date?   Do you guys recommend any type of app that you can buy/sell futures, calls, puts, etc? I would not mind using a broker, but we are not currently set up with a broker and I am not sure how to locate a trustworthy one. So, I thought mayb

Tidbits Yesterday’s weakness for corn and beans was a result of speculative profit-taking after four days of gains earlier in the week, options expiration, and merchandiser pre-hedging in the corn. The weakness in wheat made no sense at all.   Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of: 116,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China and 136,000 mts of old crop corn to Mexico   Since Monday, the US reported “flash” sales like the above notice totaled 1.347 million mts of beans (

Highlights & Export Sales November CBOT options expire today.   Weekly export sales were huge. According to Karen Braun, it was the fifth-largest corn sales for any week in at least 20 years, while sales of soybeans were the 2nd largest for any week in over a year. Also, yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 227,600 mts of old crop corn to Japan 165,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown 198,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale  of: 130,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 259,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown 100,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown, the 6th straight business day of a corn export sale announcement.   Angie Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting reported yesterday: "According to AgTraderTalk, a brokerage and analytical firm, yesterday’s sale brings the full month total to nearly 4.7 million metric tons, the fourth largest month

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close  Tuesday, October 22 , 2024: December corn settled yesterday at $4.16½, +15¼¢ since last Tues

Highlights Andy sent us river depth information from the Soy Transportation Coalition. "For each foot of draft reduction on the river, an individual barge is loaded with 7,000 fewer bushels (200 tons) of soybeans. In certain areas of the river, we are seeing several feet of draft restrictions due to low water. In addition, the lack of water will narrow the shipping channel, which limits the number of barges that can be attached together to form one single flotilla or tow. Dep

Highlights Yesterday’s soybean export inspections were the largest weekly total in nearly two years and 69% of the beans went to China.   Cash grain export trader Eduardo Vanin reported yesterday that in the last two weeks China bought more than 90 cargoes or soybeans, 35 out of the US, 7 out of Brazil for November shipment and 46 vessels from Brazil’s new crop.   Yesterday morning, USDA reported the sale of: 169,926 mts of old crop corn to Mexico and 130,000 mts of old crop

Tidbits Asia markets opened today with an increasingly bullish global backdrop fueled by continued strength in U.S. stocks, but with local sentiment more circumspect due to the uncertainty surrounding China's deep-rooted economic problems, but China continues to address those problems.   The People's Bank of China is expected to cut its loan prime rates today as Beijing's latest move in a series of monetary, fiscal, and liquidity support measures to shore up the imploding pro

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 43,276, +412.05 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $69.34, -6.15. Dollar Index  settled at 103.46, +0.54. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,576, -233 for the week. Corn December futures  at $4.04¾, -11¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = Dec; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over December futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cas

Tidbits Ukraine's President Zelensky made demands while speaking before the EU's European Council in Brussels. Zelensky said he wants to join NATO and, if Ukraine is not accepted, then he will have to resort to nuclear weapons. Zelensky sounds like he is getting more worried about Ukraine's situation.   The Biden Administration provided $425 million in aid to Ukraine earlier this week. From what we hear from people on the ground in Western North Carolina, that FEMA operation

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 21,000 mts of old crop soybean oil to Mexico 125,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown 292,800 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown Taiwan purchased 78,200 mts of US wheat in a tender on Thursday.   How does this Wednesday’s export sale of 1.995 million mts of corn match-up with the ten biggest corn sale days in US history:

Highlights U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% last month after a 0.1% gain in August, the Census Bureau reported yesterday. The market expected a gain of 0.3%.   Applications for unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week ended October 12. Economists expected it unchanged.   Those two better than expected numbers reduced the probability of a half percent point (50 basis points) interest rate cut in November to near zero, but the mark

Highlights Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of: 1,043,940 mts of old crop corn to Mexico 579,120 mts of new crop corn to Mexico 332,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown 175,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown   November soybean futures gained 5½¢ on the January beans the past 8 trading sessions. Benson Quinn Commodities, which is owned by ADM, say crushers only have enough beans to keep operating for two weeks. Farmers are not selling beans with the 90¢ drop in f

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close  Tuesday, October 15 , 2024: December corn settled yesterday at $4.01¼, -21¢ since last Tuesd

Highlights Yesterday was an all-around ugly attitude day for a variety of reasons, none-of-which justified the magnitude of the lower price movement. Rainy season is getting stronger in Brazil.   Good harvest weather in the U.S., which we know it would be last week. China’s economy is not going to get fixed soon enough to maintain demand for crude oil and all other commodities. Crude was down more than $4 at one point for the second consecutive day. Disappointing corn and whe

Highlights Yesterday’s U.S. commodity market was down on harvest pressure and China sent a record 125 military aircraft to encircle Taiwan “as a resolute punishment for Taiwan’s president's continuous fabrication of ‘Taiwan independence’ nonsense.”     The commodity markets fear that politicians may pull a Jimmy Carter stunt and “punish” China like Carter punished the Soviet Union for its Christmas Eve 1979 invasion of Afghanistan. On 4 January 1980, Carter banned U.S. grain

Q&A: ENSO Eugene asked: "Last Tuesday, you guys reported this ENSO chart: Your comment says that 60 days below the -0.5 threshold forms the La Nina. Water temperature has been below the line at least since early July. However, NOAA says "La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance)". https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml   So, why is it not a La Nina event already but a chance for it?" Roger’s reply:

Tidbits Independent financial news service, Caixin Global, reported China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) announced yesterday policies for local governments to buy land and housing from property developers and promised intensive support to help localities with their hidden debts.   These highly anticipated fiscal measures are expected to complement a slate of monetary and other initiatives announced by the country’s central bank last month to boost the sluggish economic recovery.