BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits March corn settled a quarter cents higher yesterday, but higher none-the-less for the sixth consecutive day.    More importantly, March corn settled above the 200 day moving average price two consecutive days, confirming a technical breakout to the upside. The dry  weather forecast for Argentina and Southern Brazil is the leading fundamental factor, but bullish technical signals are here to stay for a while as well. The weekly export sales had corn sales above the hig

FinCEN Reports Yesterday we reported that the U.S. Court of Appeals on Monday reinstated the 1 January 2025 deadline for farmer corporations and limited liability companies to file Beneficial Ownership Information (BOI) reports as required under the Corporate Transparency Act.   We had two clients send us the U.S.Treasury FINCEN Alert providing guidance to avoid BOI scams. The document states there is no requirement to file BOI reports “at this time,” but no date is included

Brazil Canal Rural is a Latin American subscription television channel that focuses on the production of food, agroindustry, and the field. It originated in Argentina and has been in operation for over 14 years. Canal Rural uses journalism, entertainment, and services to communicate with the country's agribusiness. Their crop comments issued 24 December 2025:   After a dry start to planting, excess rainfall in some regions of Mato Grosso, Brazil is starting to cause concerns

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, December 24 , 2024: March corn settled yesterday at $4.48½, +5¢ since last Tuesday.

Tidbits Reuters Karen Braun reported Monday’s U.S. wheat inspections  for export were a 12-week high at 404,000 mts. Wheat inspections since June 1, the beginning of the wheat marketing year, are up 27.2% on the year. The bulk of last week's export inspections occurred in the PNW ports were for Asia-bound cargoes, but none to China.   Reuters also reported Russia’s Exporters  and Producers Union sees total grain exports at 45 million mts, with 40 million of it being wheat. So

Highlights The Equatorial Pacific Surface Water temperature has dropped a half °C the past two reporting weeks and is now 1° below normal. That is why it is turning dry in Argentina and Southern Brazil and so very wet in Northern Brazil where 85% of their beans are grown. That much rain is great for the beans in that sandy soil until they are mature. As you know, soybeans cannot be harvested when the stems are wet or even damp. Harvest will be delayed and the quality of the b

Tidbits The grain markets will close at 12:05 PM CT this week Tuesday, December 24th. The markets will be closed all day on Wednesday, December 25th. They will open back up on Thursday at 8:30 AM CT, December 26th. The U.S. government pushed through a funding bill at the last minute, President Biden signed it on Saturday, putting off the next fight over the debt ceiling until March, when it will become a problem for President-elect Trump.   The bill included a one-year extens

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 42,840, -987.80 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $69.58, -1.51. Dollar Index  settled at 107.81, +0.87. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 990, -61 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.46¼, +4¼¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price

Tidbits Friday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 150,000 mts of old corn to Colombia. U.S Government funding  now expires on March 14, 2025. It will be the responsibility of the 119th Congress to grab the bull by the horns and immediately begin enacting reforms that grow the economy, cut wasteful spending, and restructure the government to serve the interests of the American people. Ukraine will block all Russian natural gas  lines moving Russian gas to the EU on Januar

Tidbits A trade dispute panel ruled Mexico violated the USMCA (US, Mexico, Canada Agreement) when it banned the import of GMO corn  in early 2023. As Mexico is the top destination for U.S. corn, yesterday’s ruling is a win for U.S. corn farmers.   However, note that shortly after Mexico announced the ban on GMO corn, Mexico modified the regulation to just human consumption corn, which is not much corn.         Bulgaria's oilseed crop  this year was its lowest crop in more tha

Tidbits South Korea bought 201,000 mts of corn: 136,000 mts is expected from unspecified sources and 65,000 mts from South America. Japan bought 77,220 mts of milling wheat from a tender that we mentioned 2 days ago: 55,420 mts from the U.S. and 21,800 mts from Australia. China's Sinograin has bought nearly 500,000 mts of U.S. soybeans this week for shipment in March and April, paying more for U.S. supplies for state reserves rather than buying cheaper Brazilian beans, two U.

Tidbits Computer selling  completely got out of hand yesterday. It all started because the market continues to expect the largest ever soybean crop in Brazil, which is the same expectation every year for the last 50+ years. Beans eventually pulled corn lower and then corn pulled wheat lower. The economic problems in Brazil, Congress may not be able to get a bill passed to keep the government running into the new year, and uncertainty about the biofuel guidelines also added to

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, December 17 , 2024: March corn settled yesterday at $4.43½, -5½¢ since last Tuesday.

Tidbits If you have beans on a January basis contract, get them rolled today to March. This market may go inverted (January premium to...

Tidbits Yesterday’s NOPA crush  for November was down 3% from October and about 3.5 million bushels less than expected, but it was a record high for any November at 193.19 million bushels. Oil Stocks were 1.084 billion pounds; the average oil inventory estimate was 1.123 billion pounds, starting the new soy oil marketing year at the lowest level since 2014/2015.   AgRural estimates the Brazilian  corn crop at 121.3 million mts (USDA 127) and Brazil’s soybean crop at 171.5 mil

Question about the value of the dollar versus corn: "Looking back to 2021 when corn prices were way higher, I compared it to the value of the US dollar and it did not really look like that was a major contributor. So, what stars lined up to cause the rapid increase and high price of corn??? Or am I misreading the dollar vs. corn chart?"   The facts: We have all heard a thousand times over the decades that a lower (exchange rate) dollar is bullish for commodities because forei

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 43,828, -814.46 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $71.09, +3.92. Dollar Index  settled at 106.94, +0.97. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,051, -116 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.42, +2¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash pric

Soybeans Comment Today is the first day of the 45 day period that will make or break Brazil’s soybean crop.    Most years, soybean futures make a low for the year before 10 October (this year 14 August) and then prices firm into the end of the calendar year, trade sideways for two weeks and then down for two or three weeks. Why? If the majority of Brazil’s beans were planted at the normal time, by January 15th, the market knows the condition of the crop, soil moisture, and th

Highlights ADM’s Joe Mauck’s comments from yesterday afternoon:  "Growing conditions in South America  remain neutral, and precipitation is expected to be average to slightly below average for the next couple weeks. Production estimates for both Brazil and Argentina feels optimistic and could increase over the next 2 months. Thinking about planted acres for next year, corn looks a lot better than beans today.  Despite the cost to plant corn being higher than beans from a cash

Tidbits The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was reported yesterday morning. It is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level. It was slightly higher than expected at 0.4% for the month of November. Unemployment claims were 21,000 higher than expected at 242,000. The market continues to expect an interest rate cut Wednesday even though the inflation numbers do not justify it. The market has priced in a 98% chance of a 25 basis points cut next week to 4.25-4.50% on the Fed