Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring) for past week Wednesday to Tuesday.
Explanation of our approach:
Corn
Corn situation after the close Tuesday, June 11, 2024:
July corn settled yesterday at $4.49½, +7¢.
December corn settled yesterday at $4.65¼, +3¼¢ since last Tuesday.
The past 7 days’ high was $4.71¾, the low was $4.58¼.
Contract high is $5.90 made June 17, 2022;
Contract low is $4.46 made February 26, 2024;
Contract range is $1.44.
Tuesday’s closing price was $1.24¾ below the contract high and 19¼¢ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2023/24 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 50, world 94.
USDA’s 2024/25 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 52, world 93.
Pricing factors:
Seasonal Trend is sideways to up until June 21st, then turns bearish, look at the chart below.
Fundamentals are bullish as US domestic and export demand is strong, Brazil’s safrinha acreage down and weather has turned dry two weeks early; Argentine crop down 20% due to Corn Stunt disease.
Technical Situation is sideways short-term, up long-term.
Price is below the breakeven.
Conclusion:
Price remaining 2023 and 2024 corn when and if profitable in June;
July corn targets: $5.00 to $5.25;
December corn targets: $5.25 to $5.50;
Get it sold by June 21st when the seasonal trend turns down, but only if profitable!
This week's Bullish Consensus:
And the Seasonal Chart reminder:
Soybeans
Soybean situation after the close Tuesday, June 11, 2024:
July Soybeans settled yesterday at $11.78, -1¢.
November Soybeans settled yesterday at $11.51½, -4½¢ since last Tuesday.
The past 7 days’ high was $11.72, the low was $11.48¼.
Contract high is $13.51 on November 4, 2022;
Contract low is $11.16¼ on May 31, 2023;
Contract range is $2.34¾.
Tuesday’s closing price was $1.99½ below the contract high and 35¼¢ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2023/24 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 30, world 106.
USDA’s 2024/25 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 37, world 117.
Pricing factors:
Seasonal Trend turns bearish.
Fundamentals are bullish as supplies are fairly tight in the USA, Brazil’s crop is about 20 mil less than expected.
Technical Situation is sideways.
Price is below the breakeven.
Conclusion:
Price remaining 2023 and 2024 soybeans when and if profitable in June or July.
This week's Bullish Consensus:
And the Seasonal Chart reminder:
Wheat
Hard Winter Wheat situation after the close Tuesday, June 11, 2024:
July HRW Wheat settled yesterday at $6.55, -32¼¢ since last Tuesday.
The past 7 days’ high was $6.93¾, the low was $6.39½.
Contract high is $10.00 on June 13, 2022;
Contract low is $5.43¼ on March 6, 2024;
Contract range is $4.56¾.
Tuesday’s closing price was $3.45 below the contract high and $1.11¾ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2023/24 total wheat carryout in days’ use: US 137, world 118.
USDA’s 2024/25 total wheat carryout in days’ use: US 147, world 115.
USDA’s 2023/24 HRW wheat carryout in terms of days’ use: US 172.
Pricing factors:
The Seasonal Trend is bearish.
Fundamentals are bullish as the world has consumed more wheat than it produced in the past four years.
Technical Situation is bearish, long-term it may be a down-correction turning higher later.
Price is probably below the breakeven.
Conclusion:
You should have already sold
old crop ($6.81 July futures),
new crop ($6.81 and $7.20 July futures),
and up to 100% of 2025 wheat production (July 2025 at $7.20 and $7.45).
If not, wait for the corn rally to carry wheat higher.
Spring Wheat situation after the close Tuesday, June 11, 2024:
September HRS Wheat settled yesterday at $6.89¼, -44¢ since last Tuesday.
The past 7 days’ high was $7.39¾, the low was $6.83.
Contract high is $8.71¾ on July 25, 2023;
Contract low is $6.46 on April 3, 2024;
Contract range is $2.25¾.
Tuesday’s closing price was $1.82½ below the contract high and 43¼¢ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2023/24 total wheat carryout in days’ use: US 137, world 118.
USDA’s 2024/25 total wheat carryout in days’ use: US 147, world 115.
USDA’s 2023/24 HRS wheat carryout in terms of days’ use: US 138.
Pricing factors:
The Seasonal Trend is bearish, 50% chance the high will be made before June 1st and 95% and chance the high will be made before August 1st.
Fundamentals are bullish due to a war in “The Bread Basket of The World”.
Technical Situation is bearish, long-term it may be a down-correction turning higher later.
Price is above the breakeven.
Conclusion:
You should have already
sold old crop,
sold 50% of 2024 with a Sept HTA at $7.38 or forward contract
placed an order to price 50% at $7.98 on the September HTA 2024.
No recommendation for 2025 HSW currently, but thinking in the $8.65 area.
Soft Red Winter:
You should have already
sold old crop ($6.64 July futures),
sold new crop (50% at $6.64 and 50% at $7.20),
priced 2025 HTA 50% of 2025 SRW wheat at $7.55 and an order to price 50% at $7.98.
This week's Bullish Consensus:
And the Seasonal Chart reminder:
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