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Weekly Summary & Recommendations 02/09/2022

Corn


Corn Situation after the close 8th February 2022 Even though we expect old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.24 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up

December corn settled at $5.82 Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 4¼ cents 20-month high $5.82 made 7 & 8 February 20-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020 20-month range is $2.13¼

Yesterday’s closing price is: At the 20 month high $2.13¼ above the 20-month low USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 94 USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 38, world: 92

Seasonal Trend is Up Fundamentals are Bullish Technical Situation is Bullish Price Above Breakeven? Yes Conclusion: Don’t sell The past week’s low was $5.65; the high was $5.82

This week's Bullish Consensus Polls:

Wright on the Market

bullish

56%

56%

bearish

11%

13%

neutral

26%

31%

no opinion

7%

NA



 

Soybeans


Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, February 8th, 2022: We recommended pricing 2021 beans at $14.78 March to establish a floor even though we expect the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.

November Soybeans Settled at $14.13. Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 31 cents 18-month high $14.24½ on 7 February 2022 18-month low $8.81½ on 7 August 2020 18 Month Range is $5.43

Tuesday’s closing price is: 11½ cents below the 18-month high $5.32 above the 18-month low USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 100 USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 29, world: 93

Seasonal Trend is up after February 10th until 2nd week in July Fundamentals are Bullish Technical Situation over bought short term, bullish long term Price Above Breakeven? Yes Conclusion: Don’t Sell This past week’s low was $13.76¼, high was $14.24½

This week's Bullish Consensus Polls:

Wright on the Market

bullish

57%

61%

bearish

17%

18%

neutral

13%

21%

no opinion

13%

NA



 

Wheat


Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, February 8th, 2022: We recommended pricing 2022 soft red winter wheat $7.97 in January. We have not recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat… way too dry July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled yesterday at $8.06½ Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 18 cents 19-month high: $8.71½ November 24th, 2021 19-month low $5.03½ August 24th, 2020 19-month range is $3.68

Tuesday’s closing price is: 65 cents below the 19-month high $3.03 above the 19-month low 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 135 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 117, world: 130

Seasonal Trend is down Fundamentals: Bullish due to dry from West Texas through Canada Technical situation is sideways to up Price Above Breakeven? Only if the yield is there, which it won’t be Conclusion: Don’t Sell Last week’s low was $7.59¼; the high was $8.08

This week's Bullish Consensus Polls:

Wright on the Market

bullish

32%

33%

bearish

21%

12%

neutral

39%

55%

no opinion

8%

NA



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