top of page
If You Haven't, Try Our Daily Grain Market Reports FREE for 30 Days!

Weekly Basis 2/19/23

Commitments of Traders report for publication date February 3, 10 & 17, 2023, is delayed due to ransomware attack on ION Group, UK. A report will be published somewhat later, we will keep you updated when it resolves.



The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) settled at 33,826.69, down 42.58 points for the week.

Crude oil settled at $76.33, down $3.43.

The Dollar Index settled at 103.88, up 0.30.

The Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 538, down 64 for the week.



Below is corn, soybeans and wheat basis outlook this week.

 

Corn


March futures at $6.77¾, down 2¾¢ for the week.

December futures at $5.95¾, down ¼¢ for the week.


Basis (K = May, H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)

The US national average basis is 8H, 1¢ weaker.

Dayton, Ohio Cargill’s Spot basis is 6H, steady, $6.84 cash price;

Iowa Falls Poet’s Spot basis is 13K (moved to May), 1¢ firmer, $6.90 cash price.


Crush Margin

Corn Ethanol Crush Margin was $1.58, $1.68 a week ago and $1.52 a year ago.

The price of corn subtracted from the value of processed products = ethanol crush margin.

 

Soybeans


March futures at $15.27¼, down 15¼¢ for the week.

May futures at $15.22¼, down 11¼¢.

November futures at $13.86¼, up 7½¢.


Basis (K = May, H = March; e.g. -20H means 20¢ under March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)

The US national average basis is -38H, 1¢ weaker.

Iowa Falls Cargill: Spot basis is -65K, 15¢ weaker, $14.57 cash price;

Sidney, OH Cargill: Spot basis is -8K (moved to May), 3¢ weaker, $15.14 cash price.


Crush Margin

Soybean Crush Margin was $4.37, $4.05 a week ago and $2.87 a year ago.

Crush margin = value of the oil and meal extracted from a bushel of beans minus the cost of a bushel of beans.

 

Wheat


Soft Red Winter Wheat (CBOT)


July 2023 futures at $7.81, down 18¢ for the week.


Basis (N = July, H = March; e.g. -28N means 28¢ under July futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)

The US national average basis is -43H, 2¢ firmer.

Heritage Coop. at Mechanicsburg, OH: July basis is -50N, steady, $7.31 cash price.



Hard Red Winter Wheat (Kansas City BOT)


July 2023 futures at $8.83¼, up 1¢ for the week.


Basis (N = July, H = March; e.g. -40N means 40¢ under July futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)

The US national average basis is -30H, 1¢ firmer.

Producer AG at Canton, KS: July basis is -15N, 5¢ firmer, $8.68 cash price.



Hard Spring Wheat (Minneapolis Grain Exchange)


September 2023 futures at $8.98¾, up 1½¢ for the week.

The US national average basis is -31H, 1¢ weaker.



 

Here is some interesting basis information:


Fall Delivery Basis Offered

Location

This Week

A Year Ago

Corn, Poet IF

-25Z

-30Z

Corn, Cargill Day

-20Z

-30Z

Soybeans, Cargill IF

-30X

-35X

Soybeans, Cargill Sid

​-15X

-20X

 

What you should have noticed


CFTC COT (Commitment of Traders) report was not published this week as well, as 2 weeks before that. We hope it will be the last.


Crude Oil was lower again, like a normal roller coaster.


Dollar Index was about steady.


Baltic Index moved lower once again, and made another 52-week low at 530 before settling a bit higher.


March soybeans futures were lower but it looks like they are going back up in a week or two.


The national average basis for soft red winter wheat firmed 2¢, hard red winter wheat firm 1¢ and spring weakened 1¢. Note the wheat class with the lowest futures price had the firmer basis, the wheat class with the highest futures price had the weaker basis. That is what one would expect if there was any basis change.


Poet, Iowa Falls moved their corn basis to May futures.


Soybean crush margins gained 32¢, corn crush lost 10¢.


All four locations already are offering a firmer basis for fall delivery this year than last for both corn and beans.

What does the firmer fall delivery basis this year versus last year tell you what these guys think demand will be this coming year?


 

Bullish Consensus voting


Summarize & share your market outlook for corn, wheat and beans. It's a good practice to form your marketing opinion. And the more opinions are expressed, the more reliable is the Bullish Consensus results. Bullish Consensus saved the Kennedy fortune. It will help build your fortune if we get enough opinions shared every week.

Vote just once a week at: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/vote

Comments


bottom of page