Tidbits, Quarterly Estimates, Storage, Ag Prices, Black Sea, EU Crops & LNG 9/30/26
Tidbits
Today at 11 AM Central time the USDA will issue its Quarterly Grain Stocks Report and Small Grain Summary as of September 1.
Historically, this is USDA’s third most significant report of the year primarily because it sets the corn and soybean carryout for old crops, which is also the carry-in for the new crop marketing year.
The corn inventory on the March Stocks report was 83.55 million bushels less than the market expected, Likewise, on the June Stocks report, the corn inventory was 97 million bushels less than the market expected. The old crop carryout is projected by USDA to be a 42 day supply, but the new crop carryout is projected to be a 35 day supply. A less-than-expected old crop inventory will automatically reduce the new crop carryover, which is already considered tight by historical standards because it is less than 36.5 day supply (10% stocks to use ratio). See the estimates below:
Storage & Delivery:
When a grain or soybean market is inverted, that means it is time to deliver the physical bushels because the return to storage is less than zero. However, if you think the futures will move higher, that is not a reason to avoid delivery of the physical bushels, but it is a reason to sell the cash grain and buy futures contracts to replace the cash sales and stop the storage losses.
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