The USDA’s two-day 2023 Ag Outlook Forum begins today. In the past, S&D numbers for the new crop were issued on Friday. However, USDA will release the S&D today at 6 AM CST instead of Friday so today's speakers will have something to talk about. The next S&D for 2023 crops will be in May and then every month for the next three years. Expect the markets to jump around today.
Late yesterday, Black Sea highly respected wheat market guru, Andrey Sizov wrote: "So now headlines say (again!) that wheat is down because of "Black Sea is too cheap"... amazing, just a few days ago they were saying that "Black Sea was a big bullish factor."
None of the wheat market fundamentals have changed the past six days when CBOT March wheat traded to $7.97½. We had some good economic news which increased the probability of higher interest rates which caused the dollar exchange rate to increase which retards all U.S. exports. It is situations like this when the Commitment of Traders (COT) report would shed some light on the market action. We have not had a COT for four weeks now due to website hackers.