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The Week Ahead & Rain Days 01/23/2022

I can make a strong case for CBOT corn, wheat and beans to open lower. Especially beans. I can also make a strong case for everything to open sharply higher.

A lot of rain has fallen in some dry parts of South America, but a much larger area received no rain at all. Less rain fell and expected to fall in the Central area of Brazil where they are trying to harvest soybeans and plant corn behind the beans.

If the traders only look at the weather head lines today, everything will be lower. If they look at the big picture rainfall maps, beans and corn will be higher. If they look at Russia/Ukraine news, wheat and corn will be higher and beans mixed to lower. My long range outlook for corn and beans is decidedly bullish. But, of course, I may be wrong.

Below is the information for you to make an informed marketing decision.

Of course, a lot can change between now and the opening of trade this evening. If we see anything of significance, we will let you know later today.

Yesterday, it was revealed Friday’s meeting between the US Secretary of State and Russia’s Foreign Minister that Russia wants NATO to remove all its forces from Bulgaria, Romania and other former communist states in Eastern Europe which joined NATO since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

The problem is those countries joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) specifically to gain security against Russian aggression. When Ukraine, asked to join NATO 2008, that was the final straw for Russia and tensions have been escalating ever since.

How is this situation going to be resolved?

If NATO removes its presence in those countries:

  1. Those countries will know Western Europe and the USA (NATO members) are cowards who would sell-out their mother to avoid confrontation.

  2. Those countries would be forced to buddy-up with Russia to placate the Russian Bear.

If NATO does not remove its presence in those countries:

1. It looks like Russia will invade Ukraine

2. However, I have my doubts about and deep invasion because:

- Putin fears his military are not willing to die for Russian expansion

-Putin only needs to shut off the natural gas to Europe and Ukraine

and he will have all of them getting in line to become Putin's puppets

Reported yesterday by the Huffington Post:

Amid fears of an imminent attack on Ukraine, Russia has further upped the ante by announcing more military drills in the region. It also has refused to rule out the possibility of military deployments to the Caribbean, and President Vladimir Putin has reached out to leaders opposed to the West.
Putin has repeatedly asserted that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people,” and says large chunks of Ukrainian territory are historic parts of Russia — arbitrarily granted to Ukraine by Communist leaders during Soviet times.
Over 14,000 people have been killed in nearly eight years of fighting in Ukraine’s industrial heartland called the Donbas, where the Moscow-supported insurgency erupted shortly after the annexation of Crimea. A 2015 peace deal brokered by France and Germany helped end large-scale battles, but a political settlement has stalled, and frequent skirmishes have continued along the tense line of contact.
Adding to an estimated 100,000 troops deployed near Ukraine, Russia also has moved more troops from Siberia and the Far East for joint drills with its ally Belarus, which also borders Ukraine. In those exercises, Russian military units have moved to areas near Belarus’ southern border, which is about 75 kilometers (47 miles) from Kyiv.

The US State Department ordered families of US Embassy personnel in Ukraine to evacuate the country tomorrow.

Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul has had eleven consecutive days with temperatures above than 104°F (40°C) with the maximum in the state 110°F (43°C).

There are spots in Argentina that received 8-10 inches of rain yesterday. However, the weather maps below indicate the vast majority of Argentina’s crop area received no rain at all.

The first radar map below is of Southern Brazil, all of Paraguay, Uruguay and the crop area of Argentina taken at 8:30 PM Central Time Saturday.

The second radar map was taken at 10:35 PM Central time. Note it just happened that the narrow line of showers covered Cordoba and Salto, the only two localities we report the Argentine rainfall. The circle on the right is Santa Maria in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The orange arrows are the points we have been reporting rain days for the past 15 months.

Rondonópolis Rain yesterday was 0 inches. Rain a year ago was 0.4 inches. Rain two years ago was 1.4 inches.Yesterday's high temperature was 94°F. Day time highs the next ten days will range from 86 to 96°F. Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America: Santa Maria high temperature 111°F with 0.1 inches rain. Cordoba high temperature 97°F with 1.1 inches rain.

Salto high temperature 84°F with 1.3 inches rain.

Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days: Santa Maria 1.20 inches, 79 to 102°F. Cordoba 4.99 inches, 77 to 89°F. Salto 1.42 inches, 79 to 88°F.

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