Tech Guy Weekend Update 8/19/23

September Wheat needed 1 more day to attract the fund buyers, as Thursday was a full test of the May 31st low and Friday was a big green up day that was 24.75 cents higher.

Wheat also closed higher than both Wednesday and Thursday , indicating that a solid low is most likely in place for the funds to begin short covering and then try to build a long position later on.

A picture is worth a thousand words. Here is the current September Wheat daily chart.

This is from Thursday's corn comments:

"I would like to see 493 achieved tomorrow".

December Corn continued rallying on Friday, marking a high of 495 and last trading at 492.50. Support for Monday should be 489 and the next objective higher should be the USDA report day high of 507.50.

Here is Friday's December Corn 30 min chart again showing the Elliot wave count as bullish energy gains momentum.

November Soybeans sustained it's contracting triangle breakout and tacked on 24.00 cents to the upside on Friday. The close landed directly on a supply/demand balance line and the trade will likely have the energy to keep marking up price.

There are 3 targets above in beans: 1379 gap, 1399 triangle target, and the old swing high at 1435. Monday's support should be resting at 1340. Take a look at the 2 hour November Bean chart again.

Here is a good article on momentum and markets from investopedia:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/momentum.asp

October Crude Oil has been in a downward correction over the last several days and found support at an old resistance line that became support at 79.00 on Thursday and Friday. This should be the #4 wave correction.

The rally above 85.00 could continue now, but the selloff so far is only one leg and the rule of alternation says if #2 was simple (and it was), #4 should be complex. This means a 2 legged correction as opposed to 1 simple leg, may be in order now.

Therefore, we will have to keep track of the next 3 days of trading to make a better determination. A complex correction would look like a move back up to about 82.50 and then a selloff back to test 79.00.

Here is a technical explanation of this rule of alternation from O'Reilly.

https://www.oreilly.com/library/view/timing-solutions-for/9781118339206/xhtml/sec36.html#:~:text=FIGURE%204.26%20The%20Rule%20of,to%20be%20a%20complex%20pattern.

Check out the updated Crude daily chart.