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Tech Guy Weekend Update 7/9/23

I think the whales (some very large traders) knew about the extra 2 million corn acres and also knew about the fewer bean acres. This is why December Corn sold off more than 100 cents, 6 days in a row before the acreage report.


I also think the USDA cut acres so much, perhaps because they knew yield would have to be adjusted down to some degree - don't know this for sure, it simply makes common sense to me. They are trying to keep ending stocks at a comfortable level.


Despite the buzz of many market participants thinking the corn crop is made and that there is little hope of a rally, I do not hold this same thoughts. I believe the size of the corn crop has peaked, in the eyes of the market.


When the public is overbalanced to one side of the ship (bearish), you'd better watch for the other direction - not unlike the Kennedy story which Roger has shared from time to time.


I feel like we are going to see a lot of movement in the grains this week. The monthly supply/demand report is Wednesday.


December Corn also painted a Doji (very close) bar on the weekly chart, at an old swing low and after a 130 cent sell off. These factors are usually indicative of a turn signal. Take a look at the December Corn weekly Doji bar.


The Soybean market feels like a powder keg. After a reduction of near 2 million acres, this market can't afford any reduction in yield. November Soybeans has formed a bullish inverted head & shoulders pattern. It is more bullish because the right neckline is above the left.


The August contract also has also marked this pattern. The odds favor this formation playing out and marking price upwards to at least near it's target at 1659 - the chart momentum is clearly up for beans. There is also up pressure on a supply/demand line on the August bean chart that I posted last week.


Here is the Daily November Bean chart.


September Wheat has continued to hold support in the 640 area. The correction is still in progress and I have drawn vertical blue lines as a possible future route for price - different than the previous lines. Charting is always a moving target.


Wheat should have 1 more test of the 639 to 635 area before resuming the up trend. Check out the September 8 hour Wheat chart.


The September S&P is continuing it's up trend, despite the publicized slowing of the economy - will this fact end up sinking the S&P? Price will need to keep marking itself up above 4500 to prove the rally has legs.


If it does, there are upside targets awaiting. Here is the S&P daily chart.



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