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Tech Guy Weekend Update 7/15/23

From Thursday's December Corn comments:


"I am looking for a close tomorrow at 510 or better. If accomplished, this will set things up nicely for a strong week ahead next week."


Not only did we get a close at 510 or better, corn closed at 514.25 up +13.75. The bottom formation is a completed fakeout/shakeout - attracting more farmer and small speculator selling to fuel the reversal higher.


The trend is now up on the daily chart. After a Doji weekly bar last week, corn painted a key reversal weekly bar this week as Roger stated. All of these features are bullish developments, and a rally back up to 600 and even 630 is probable.


As mentioned before, the move down in December Corn from June 21st was fairly straight down so the ride back up should also be relatively straight with 2 small corrections. Plus, there is a big intraday gap at 620 which will act as a magnet and exert more pull the closer price gets to 620.


Here is the weekly corn chart going back to 2012 so you can see the long term support level we are resting on. Also, I mentioned this a while back, but one of the rules of charts says that the market on any chart will spend about as much time trading sideways as it does rallying or selling off.


Corn traded sideways for about 6 years from 2014 to 2020. Therefore, the rule of thumb says the rally and subsequent selloff back down should also take about 6 years. With this information, we should expect price to remain above the 500 level until sometime in 2026. Could this rule be a year off? Sure. Therefore, we are targeting 2026 +/- 1 year.


Here's the weekly corn.

September Wheat experienced follow through buying on Friday, as expected, because we stated that the new up impulse should be underway. The next price action should therefore be a rally back up to the 760 level. Here is the updated September wheat chart.


The trend is still up in August Soybeans, as well. After consolidating on Friday, I expect to see more buying early next week. Here is the updated August Bean chart.

Friday's trade is the last 5 bars.


A few of our clients have been asking about a Canola chart update. The canola market and soybean oil market tend to trade similarly for obvious reasons.


After bottoming out about 6 weeks ago the daily and weekly canola charts are in an uptrend. The chart action in March through May was selling pressure in what appeared to be another downleg.


However the fund buyers had something else in mind. They took the opportunity of accumulating long positions below 800, and after a final low around 650, canola reversed up and has been rallying ever since.


The next resistance area should be in the 860-890 area, and then around 960 after that. These are targets higher. Depending on the strength of this market the corrections could be more brief in time and price or a bit more substantial.


Here is the weekly canola chart so you can see these price levels up and to the left. Remember that future resistance is caused by price action to the left.


Daily Soybean Oil continuation (Dec contract) for reference. It closed 2 days in a row above the what was a resistance line is now becoming support.


One of our clients noticed how silver and gold were rallying. A look around the investment world tells us many commodities and equities are now sweeping higher, including crude oil and the stock market.


There is a general "risk on" mentality on U.S. assets. This is the continuation (September) silver daily chart. The next target higher is 27.50 +/-.


August Crude Oil Update: Those following crude know that it recently rallied to the 77 area, where 2 resistance lines coincide. Crude is now in a backfill mode fleshing out the # 2 wave after # 1 up impulse completed. Buying support should be between 74 and 72.







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