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Tech Guy Weekend Report 6/25/23

This 60 day historical rainfall map is from one of Eric Snodgrass's recent videos. It is a slightly different perspective of the corn belt dryness. It goes back 60 days from June 22nd. It appears that a huge area is in the 20-40% of normal for the last 2 months. Some acres are below 20%.

There are some similarities with dryness and crop conditions between this year and 2012 - it is not exact of course, but the calendar is starting to roll to interesting and perhaps analogous days.

June 26th of 2012 gapped higher, forming a break-a-way gap and marked the 2nd day of an expanded range up. There should/could be some chart similarities with this year. Here is the continuation corn chart from 2012.

December Corn continued it's correction on Friday and may be targeting the area of the upside breakout for buying support. Breakout levels are often re-tested on charts. I do think this correction will be complete sometime on Monday.

Let's say that December corn completes the correction lower at 580. 580 + an expanded 3rd wave higher would give us 772. Check out the December Corn chart and look at the math near the top of the chart.

The November soybean chart may have completed it's correction on Friday. If so, we can project a price for the next leg (wave 3) higher. The first leg was 248, so an extension of that for the next leg higher would give us about 1633. Check out the bean chart.

The first leg on the August bean chart was 254 cents. The same extended leg from Friday's low on August beans would yield about 1733 for a 3rd wave target.

Another thing that occurred on Friday in soybeans was that some demand seemed to creep back in. Yes, the board is still inverted - old crop beans are priced higher than new crop.

But Friday, the losses in the July and August contracts were less than in the November contract. Notice how the losses increase as you move out in the contract months.

July Wheat appears to have completed a small up leg. Wheat closed at 730.5 on Friday and support now comes in at 695. Here is the current July Wheat chart.

The continuation soybean oil chart is a good example of how the lines function as support and resistance. On June 9th bean oil broke higher from a down sloping channel, then rallied to the 1st resistance.

Now, the chart is testing the break out point, after correcting down some, sort of like the corn chart. Check out all the price bars and lines over the last 3 weeks on the bean oil chart.

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