Tech Guy Weekend Comments for 7/30/22
My Comments from Monday, 7/25:
"The weekly ranges in both corn and beans have been large for 5 weeks now - 60-80 cents in Dec Corn, $1.00 plus in Nov Soybeans. Based on this DNA (energetic characteristic) it is reasonable for this week's bars to also be in those ranges - this puts Dec Corn up to 620-630 and Nov Beans 1415-1425 area. These are my targets by Friday or Monday."
On Friday Dec Corn topped at 636.5 and last traded near 622.25 (68 cent range) and Nov Soybeans topped at 1489 and last traded at 1473.50, in a $2.00.50 range for the week. That is a 2.94 bean/corn ratio as far as the range.
Earlier in the week, I said Beans was the stronger instrument. Wow - it really overperformed. Roger was correct, I did not know beans would explode this much. This is the most expanded week in Soybeans in 19 years confirmed, maybe for ever. This tells us a lot about the intense energy going on here and gives us more information about how powerful beans are moving forward. Hang on.
Soybeans is perhaps beginning to show us evidence that this a once in a generation market. The monthly soybean chart was very nearly a doji where the open/close are near each other with a huge bar down then up for the July bar - markets usually trend in the opposite direction from where the tail is pointing - in this case the tail is down so direction is up.
Look at the last bar to the right on this chart - left hash is the open, down/up, right hash is the close. This July monthly bar (currently August contract) is $2.75 long and is 5 cents smaller than the February monthly bar, 5 bars to the left. These 2 bars are longer than the July 2012 bar which was $2.55. Stay tuned.
Somebody said they pulled this from twitter - a 7 day local forecast from Woodhouse, looks like an NBC affiliate. I think it's on the border of IA & NE:
There was also chatter that the last time the midwest had a 7 day stretch of temps this high was either 1954 or 1936. Also, I saw on water.weather.gov that there are at least a few million acres in the vicinity of the above forecast that have received a half inch or less of rain in the last 2 weeks. Those acres could suffer.
I expect both Dec Corn and Nov Beans continue to rally next week - with the order of strength being Soybeans, Corn, then wheat lagging behind.
Sep Crude Oil Update: it traded up to the 102 target on Friday then reversed. I do not know if the uptrend is dead, but for now crude is still stuck in a range between 102-94. I would exit longs on Sunday night.
This week's vegetation maps are not published yet. I will try to publish them later in the weekend.