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Tech Guy Weekend Comments for 10/8/22

December Soymeal marked an outside day higher on Friday - very near what some analysts would call a key reversal. To me a key reversal can include 2 days or 3 to 4. An outside higher day is after a down day with a lot of solid red with the 2nd day making a lower low then closing up higher than the previous day's high. This 2 day pattern is at the bottom of a down trend. I think you will see it on the Soymeal chart below.


With this action and type of chart structure the odds favor a change of trend to up - we need to see follow through on Monday to confirm this.


As you probably already know, meal is the major product from soybeans. If Dec Soymeal begins to trend higher then the Nov Bean chart will likely also begin to up trend. As you also know, Nov Beans have spent the last few days consolidating at the bottom of a big range and trying to completely close its gap up from July - there are still 3 ticks of price unfilled. This should be a sign of fund buyers interest to own soybeans here - support & strength.


During Friday's trade Dec Corn and Wheat both found support on the previous day's low - with corn being up +7.50 and wheat up +4.25. Support for Dec Wheat is 855, although the 873 level is holding for now. 669 is Monday's support for Dec Corn.


The Dec S&P corrected the last 2 days after a 2 day uptrend. I am still leaning that this is a new uptrend (most likely) although it may turn out to mark a double bottom.


Traditionally, the first correction after a new uptrend begins is very deep - up to 78% down from the top of the up move. The Dec S&P sold off within a fraction of 78% on Friday - If we are correct about the new uptrend, we will see prices marking upwards soon - Monday or Tuesday. Not labeled on the chart - Friday's lows and close are very near the old important low (support) from June. Take a look at the S&P chart.

Nov Crude Oil Update: On Friday crude bought straight up through my 2 upper resistance lines to close at 93.20. Is this situation going to be a small overshoot of resistance and then correct down to support around 86 or is oil so strong it will rally straight up to the resistance line at 101-102? We will have to see on Monday and Tuesday. You will see what I mean on the chart below.