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Tech Guy Weekend Comments featuring Heating Oil/Diesel 9/4/22

The October Heating Oil chart found buying support on Thursday (Sep 1st) near $3.4433 after selling off from a high of $4.0356 on Aug 25th. This chart is marking an upside down head & shoulders pattern (looks like a guy standing on his head) - with last Thursday's low forming the right shoulder at price $3.4433. This pattern usually points to higher prices ahead.

Notice the up sloping line which forms the neckline. The fact that the right neckline (more bullish) is higher makes this pattern more likely to succeed - The buyers were able to push up price higher than the left side of the neckline - thus demand increased with time. Like all patterns on charts, the upside down Head & Shoulders is an expression of the market searching for supply/demand balance.

I am aware that producers have fuel needs for their operation and wanted to spread awareness that higher prices are more likely. The next most probable move will be for price to increase back up to the right side of the neckline towards price $4.1000 (up sloping line). Then, depending on supply/demand at that time, Heating Oil will attempt to breakup through the neckline.

Please study this Heating Oil chart - notice the dates across the bottom, the price at the right neckline, all the other labeling and the possible target of $4.8700.

The .65 number is the distance from the left neckline to the bottom of the head, and .89 is from the right neckline to the head - these 2 are averaged for the most likely target number. The upper target is calculated by averaging the average neckline distance to the head price ($.77), then adding that to $4.1000.


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