Tech Guy Weekend Comments 3/12/23
From last Wednesday's April Crude Oil comments:
"... The next support below that, would be about 74.90."
Friday's crude oil trade was rather volatile, starting with early Friday morning's trade selling off to 74.77 then the daytime trade reversed up almost 2 bucks to close at 76.68, up +0.96 for the day.
I expect the rally to continue on Monday up to 78.5 or 79 where a backfill should occur to the 76.5 +/- 0.50 level. Check out Friday's 2 hour updated April crude chart.
As expected, May Corn reversed higher before the selling could take prices down to 600. In fact, before the day session opened at 8:30 am CDT, May Corn had traded back above 610 and later finished up +6.75 to 618.75.
Specifically speaking, before the daytime open, the jobs report caused May Corn to sell down to 606.75, then price quickly reversed and traded up above 612, trapping shorts in what is called a fakeout/shakeout pattern.
3.75 cents higher than Friday's close of 618.75, and corn will be above that 622.25 all important low. Here is a zoomed in version of the May Corn 30 minute chart from Friday.
On Friday, May Soybeans floundered around, continuing the correction business on the 1 hour chart. The rally that began on March 1st took 4 days, and similarly the down correction has lasted 4 days, as well.
Markets like price symmetry but they also like time symmetry. Therefore this fact should be supporting evidence that the next leg higher is fit to begin. Here is the updated Daily soybean continuation chart - the next rally should take price up to test the 1550-1555 area.
May Wheat had a nice rebound up day on Friday, as well. The pattern was very similar to corn's formation in that a bear trap (selling occurred) was set up, then the the fund buyers reversed wheat higher and it closed +17.50 higher on the day.
Because of the price action on Friday, May Wheat's low price should hold for a while. Check out the zoomed in 1 hour wheat chart showing the green bar rally.
The recent US Dollar pattern is bullish for commodities, in my opinion. It worked higher a couple days ago, testing an old swing high to the left and then sold off sharply, marking a lower low from the previous low price on the left. I believe the odds are good for a new down leg starting in the USD. You will see what I mean from the chart.