Tech Guy Weekend Comments 11/19/22
After being totally wrong about how far Crude Oil needed to sell off, Friday's flush out of most long positions most likely got the job done (capitulation). The price action was a dramatic straight down selling, reversal straight back up and closed almost 3 dollars off the low. Confidence is high that Friday was a V bottom.
The selling was so intense, January Crude Oil almost tested the low from Sep 26th of 76.25 - yesterday's low was 77.59 and the close was 80.26. Friday's low should be a fairly long term support area for weeks or months.
Over the next several weeks I expect Crude to mark price up to 90 to 94 again. The bumps labeled on the chart are all potential resistance levels where the market will at least pause and backfill somewhat.
For swing traders who want to take profits or add to a long position those backfill areas are 82.50-83, 85-85.50, 88.50-89.50, and more areas between 90-94. I have compiled a wider view chart which goes back to mid-September so you can see the picture. Notice the bumps and resistance lines.
Jan Heating Oil should also rise in price for the foreseeable future - It might be a good time to lock in some prices next week.
As I talked about last week, the grains will most likely rally from last weeks lows on the daily charts into at least mid to late December. Another farmer/trader who I respect has a 760 target for March Corn by December.
I am presenting the Daily continuation charts for Corn and Beans so y'all can see the bigger picture. The continuation charts that I use compile every front month until just after option expiration - the change over occurs when most of the traders roll positions to the next month near the end of the month before futures expiration.
Dec Corn recently had a small fakeout selloff the last week and a half, and Jan Beans corrected down to near the bottom of the triangle. I believe rallies will begin in earnest next week in Dec Corn and Jan Beans. I am also posting the 8 hour Jan Bean chart so you can see the big triangle. Both bean charts are relevant and point to similar up targets. Please spend some time studying the charts so you can make sense out of them - there is a lot of information and notes labeled. If you have any questions about these please let Roger know.
The order of charts: corn continuation, bean cont., Jan bean triangle.
A note on the corn and bean cont. charts: Once Corn clears 740 and beans 1580 there is not any appreciable resistance (no bumps) above these prices. Since the trends will be strong at those prices, there is reason to think they could buy up to the highs on the left side on both charts - into Feb or March.