May Wheat 15 to 20 higher
May Corn steady to 3 lower
Beans 3 to 5 higher
Technical Analysis
The May soybean contract has been in a triangle/sideways channel for 10 trading days. When it breaks out of this range, the energy built-up should propel it higher for a similar number of days with the initial target of $19.00. Please see the one-hour chart below.
The May corn contract has also been consolidating before its next move up. There is a two cent gap on the daily chart from the high on February 28th to the low on March 1st. Based upon market action since the first of March, we now know that gap is a measuring gap and, therefore, measures to a target of about $8.86. Please see chart below.
May wheat has corrected (retraced) a nearly perfect 50% (in this case 51%) from the recent low to the recent high on the up leg from Feb 3rd low of $7.46½ to the Mar 8th high of $13.63½. It has filled two of the three gaps made on the run-up and should have another leg up to between $19.77 to $20.52.
Those highs would equal the previous leg price change of $6.23:
$6.23 times 1.5 = $9.34; $9.34 plus $10.43 low = $19.77 or
$6.23 times 1.62 = $10.09; $10.09 plus $10.43 low = $20.52
All three wheat classes probably need more time to consolidate and possibly correct a bit more before the next leg up. While 51% is a good corrective retracement, it may need to trade to the 62% which is $9.77 instead of $10.43, depending on the supply & demand balance, before next up leg begins.
All of these moves could be fairly violent and quick - above current highs is thin air, so to speak.
I updated 4 hour April crude oil chart by changing the “A point” for the corrective counting. The $103.63 low could be tested lightly, but for practical purposes should hold.
The previous $40 move is shown; 1.5 is a popular Fibonacci ratio in financial markets. Sometimes the next leg in a sequence is extended from the first leg, hence 1.5 times 40 =$60
The following video is an interview with Elena Faige Neroba, who is the business development manager at MaxiGrain, headquartered in Kyiv, Ukraine. MaxiGrain is an agri-brokerage company with partners around the globe. Length is 16 minutes and 16 seconds.