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Tech Guy Opening Calls, Grain and Crude Comments 6/7/22

July Wheat - Steady to 2 Lower


July Corn - Steady to 1 Higher

Dec Corn - Steady


July Soybeans - 1 to 2 Higher


After an almost +35 cent up day in July Soybeans (closing near 1731), support comes in around 1728-1725, then the 1718 area. Beans are attempting to break out to the upside from both the range which began on 2/24 and a smaller triangle forming since Memorial Day (5/31) at the top third of the range - looks promising.


I saw no indication that heavy selling came in near today's high, or signs that beans need to have another straight down day. Even though today's action is a different type of stairstep (longer waves/steps) from the stairstep down day last Friday, it is still stairstepping back up as expected.


July (support 747) and Dec Corn (support 707) both had breakout up days today. I expect another up leg in July to reach 780-788 (734 Dec) over the next couple of days. July has taken the lead again (over Dec) which is bullish demand - There should be a pause in the up move/correction before Friday's USDA NASS estimate.


July Crude Oil Update: As expected, Crude is rangebound, temporarily trapped between Sunday night's open at 120.99 to 117.65, while it builds energy for the next leg, most likely higher to 124. There was a good sign for the bulls during today's session.


Around midday, traders tried to push crude down below 117.65 to 117.14. However, the bulls gobbled the shorts up like it was a feeding frenzy and within 1 hour and 20 minutes bought price back up +2.50 from the low to close, very near the top of the range.


This type of pattern is called a fakeout/shakeout - the sellers are faked out (because it quickly reverses and they become underwater, and the weak buyers (smaller spec traders) are getting stopped/forced out with tight sell stops.


I expect July Crude to make higher lows on the bottom of the range until it can push through the top. See the range on the Crude chart here.