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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 8/10/22

Sep Wheat - 1 to 2 Lower


Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Lower


Sep Beans - 5 to 8 Lower

Nov Beans - 2 to 4 Lower


Overnight last night Dec Corn closed the gap only on the Daily bar chart. The intraday gap stayed open. This simply means the low tick (price) last night traded down to the very high price from Monday this week but that Monday's close is below today's opening price - hence the phrase, "it gapped up on the open."


I have blown up the Dec Corn daily chart so you can see this detail. The middle red line shows where the high and low price bar is and the 2 outer red lines show the open gap between the close Monday and the open today.


Open gaps are where there is unfinished business. If it is more urgent business to mark higher prices than fill the gap you have Dec Corn now. It will completely fill this gap at some point but for now higher prices is a higher priority - therefore we have a detail about the strength of corn's uptrend. Continued Higher prices up ahead.


Sep Soybeans filled it's gap to the left between prices 1550-1554 today (see yesterday's Sep bean chart). This was the reason for the pullback today. 1490-1495 is a low risk area to add longs or re-enter.


Don't let the pullback fool you into thinking this uptrend is damaged or over - just the opposite - wild swings are a symptom of huge pent up energy (up energy) since May. Like a slingshot winding up.


If you are counting the Sep bean legs, it's been 1-2-3 where 2 is the down correction. 3 up and today began 4. Within 4 will be a-b-c. Today's down move is a...I am looking for b up to 1530-1535 area, then c back down to 1495-1490.


Rainfall and temperatures in some areas of the Midwest have been too little and too hot the last 30-45 days. There are areas not doing so great. Bottom line - Don't think trendline yields are possible at this point. Here is the last 30 days precipitation as a percentage of normal across the corn belt in case you don't see it elsewhere. New corn will continue the uptrend 80-95% and new crop beans will eventually get going.


First map is faint so you can see the state lines. 2nd map is heavy color so you can see the percentages well.



The Sep and Dec Wheat charts are carving out a big saucer bottom on the daily chart - looks like a saucer from the side. The implication is trending higher longer term into fall/winter.


The US Dollar closed at 105.08 the lowest close since July 5th. Will be supportive for oil and grains If the down momentum continues.


The stock market broke up through some pretty stiff resistance today - the uptrend here should continue. As Roger talks about this was a case of sell the rumor buy the fact on the inflation number. I suppose the broader markets feel inflation has a least peaked or near peak.