Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 7/6/22
Sep Wheat - 2 to 4 Higher
Sep Corn - Steady to 1 Higher
Dec Corn - 3 to 5 Higher
Nov Soybeans - 1 to 2 Higher
December Corn traded to a slightly lower low this morning then reversed up. Next goal is for it to fill the gap between 602-604. After today's session, I have more confidence that Dec Corn is marking a significant swing low on the weekly.
For the last 2 weeks the liquidation/ exiting positions has been massive. Open interest (the number of open contracts has decreased every day during this time - up until last Wednesdays there were 174,098 positions exited in one week. Starting Friday before the 4th, open interest has been increasing again.
The point is that historically, after massive selloff and liquidation events - when the open interest begins growing again this will often coincide with market lows in corn or soybeans.
I am not saying corn will not make a lower harvest low, simply that this area is good support on the weekly chart and a harvest low could be in this vicinity. I posted the Dec Corn 4 hour chart so you can see the volume and the 62% retracement back up - this is a reasonable next target higher - around 680 which also marks within a few ticks of the June 1st low that had big volume.
November Soybeans also made a slightly lower low today, then found buyers. Today's bar was a doji (open/close very near one another). A doji day means there is confusion between the bulls and bears - no one is in charge - the selling has dried up and the buying is starting up - tug of war.
Look at the horizontal line running across last June's (2021) high. Old highs often function as new support. The most likely path here in Nov Beans is back up to the 1500 area where the last swing high was marked on June 30 - report day.
August Crude Oil Update: Oil is trading pretty much with the grains. The next move should be up to test the 105 area. This should not be stiff resistance - a brief pause, perhaps then Crude should make a rune for 112.