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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 5/8/22

July Wheat - 7 to 10 Higher

July Corn - Steady to 2 Higher

July Soybeans - 4 to 6 Higher


All financial markets have time cycles - regular intervals, double intervals, half

interval, etc. - from point to point. For example, let's say a leg on a daily chart is 1 month low to high then it may correct for 1 month, next leg could also be 1 month and on and on like this.


I have no idea why unless it's akin to other things in nature that tend to have regular patterns, but the grains tend to adhere to fairly regular intervals/cycles as far as length of time for each leg to complete or low to next high, low to next low or high to next high - In Corn and Soybeans each cycle tends to be 1X or the same as the previous leg.


I have been tracking, in number of days, the swing low to high points, High to low points and low to low points on the Soybean and Corn daily charts since Dec 1st. We are using July Soybeans for this example, but the July Corn intervals are very similar.


If this is difficult to follow reading, it will make more sense when you look at the July Daily Soybean chart below. Since Dec 1st the intervals/cycles have been between 35 and 38 days.


From the Dec 1st low to the Jan 7th high it was 37 days. The Jan 18th low to the Feb24 high was about 37 days. The Feb 24th high to the Mar 31st/Apr 1 low was 38 days. Finally, it was 35 days from the Apr 1st low to the low marked on Friday, May 6th (Monday is May 9th). These points are marked on the chart below, Please study where the red arrows and number of days are. The cycles are from red arrow to next red arrow moving left to right.




If you will remember, the week after Apr 1st when I believed July Soybeans was likely starting a new up leg I counted out 38 days to arrive at May 9th give or take. The assumption was made that we would be looking for a swing high around that time frame because after all the previous up leg had taken 37 days.


We are directly upon the May 9th timeframe and July Soybeans is most likely near a swing low NOT high. Therefore, my cumulative data shows us the chart is more likely Beginning a new 37-38 day cycle from or near a swing low. Assuredly, we all need to see some buying during the next few days to confirm this. If this scenario proves out, then we start with a new 38 day count.


June Crude Oil Update - Crude Has been rangebound between 111.37 and 106.35 since last Wed. It has reached a bit of a supply/demand balance here. Support for buying is the 106.00 area and resistance is 116.75. We will have to see tonight's trade, but the ledge between 108 and 106.75 may end up holding firm.



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