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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 8/8/23

Sep Wheat - 2 to 3 Lower

Dec Corn - Steady

Nov Beans - 1 to 2 Higher

September Soybeans marked a slightly lower low in last night's trade. Why? You guessed it - to put more bullish energy into the tank. I agree with Roger, these lows will probably be the seasonal/yearly low.

I believe there will be a correction after a rally, but the harvest lows will mark Higher lows than the July and likely recent lows. I know the harvest lows are generally between September and November, but they can occur early - last July marked yearly lows.

The market likes symmetry with price and time or yearly anniversaries. If beans do what I think they are doing, after eclipsing the 1550-1600 highs, 1550 to 1530 will become good support.

Remember all those swing highs in beans during late December through February? They will become support in the future. Here's the September daily chart followed by the continuation. The continuation is the November contract because of the liquidity roll.

There is a lot of clean air/straight down, above 1550 on the bean continuation.

I like to know what farmers are talking about, there concerns, ect, so I scan Agtalk market talk page. There were a couple of different threads/topics on, "what do you think yield will be nationally?" - folks who did some driving around.

Most of them said some rough looking, most looking pretty good.

There were 2 in Iowa or Iowa and Illinois who said, "y'all haven't walked into any fields if you think it's going to be a good crop. Here's a link to one of the comments if you want to do some reading.

In general, if you hear a story from one person, you don't know if it's fact or embellishment, etc, but if one guy's story is corroborated by another, there's more truth to it. Here is the other thread.

December Corn and September wheat both marked higher lows today and corn also printed a higher high than yesterday by one tick. This price action is supportive. The traders take small victories very seriously.

Check out the continuation corn chart for the broader perspective.

September Crude Oil is continuing it's bullish run. Although crude is butting up against resistance currently, the uptrend is intact. It has worked itself (trading back and forth and higher) up through 81 and is trying to take out 84 and run higher.

Notice today's daily bar - a 3 dollar range and it sold down to 80, was rejected, then rallied and closed near the high at 82.82. A small body with a long tail. This indicates that the bulls are defending their positions. Here's today's crude chart.

The S&P has been in a correction for a few days, but should continue the uptrend. It has been finding buying support the last 3 days above the blue uptrend line - this is significant to the bulls. It's called frontrunning.

The professional bulls are to eager to buy before support is reached because they have information that the public doesn't, so they buy early, preventing other would be buyers, who are waiting below, from entering the market.

This is bullish because a portion of those left behind will jump in higher for fear of missing the move, causing price to bid up.

This is the current S&P daily.


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