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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 8/14/23

Sep Wheat - 4 to 6 Higher

Dec Corn - Steady to 2 Higher

Nov Beans - 2 to 3 Lower

The corn market has been giving me and others fits over the last 10 trading days. The gap down on Sunday night, 2 weeks ago turned out to be a measuring gap, not an exhaustion gap, as I suspected then. I also had previously thought it was taking too much time to make it to the 481 to 477 level.

The comforting news is twofold. As you know from the weekend weekly corn chart, we are sitting on solid support. Also, the measuring gap target is 477, 3 cents down from today's low. If the corn bears try selling again, the bulls will be waiting there in force.

Today's price action was a V bottom on the intraday charts and price tested the July 13th low at 481, to the tick, then reversed. After the low print, December Corn rallied over a nickel to close well off the lows. This tells me the fund buyers are becoming more serious - several spikes down and up. The corn market is not flat.

Overall, this feels like an early harvest (pre-harvest) low. The continuation corn chart has now marked a double bottom and the December contract has marked a triple bottom. I know triple lows are not always reliable, but the other supporting data being discussed here supports this claim.

The bottom line is a rally from here or 1 more low between 481 and 477 and then, we want to see a close above Friday's high of 507.5 (report day high) for good confirmation - this is not to far away. Support is 481 to 477.

Here's today's December Corn chart.

September Wheat sold off as well today, testing the June 8th low and rallying almost 9 cents from there. This old low to the left is labeled, "this low" with a red horizontal line. Notice that today closed above this old low (red line).

First wave corrections can be exceptionally deep (beyond the 78% Fib), as this one has retraced about 82%. I don't think wheat needs to test the 573 low from May 31st. Rather, I believe this is an irregular flat A-B-C correction - irregular because the B high eclipsed the #1 high.

This is a low risk accumulation area for the funds. Support is at 610 to 608. Check out today's September Wheat daily chart.

November Soybeans are doing fine, with a rally of about 17 cents (1324.75 close) today to show for it. There is an inverted head & shoulders being formed on the 1 hour chart, with a 61 cent target of 1397.

Let's see how long the bulls take to reach this target. Support is at 1309. Check out the 1 hour Nov Bean chart.

September Crude Oil reached the first swing target of about 83.50 and topped out a dollar above this on Thursday. It is currently consolidating/rotating around this level. You will see on the daily chart that this is also an old high to the left.

Coincidences like this occur often in charts. Crude is technically in a correction, but it could be a running correction that keeps marking new highs. You will see how it continues to mark higher highs and lows. Support comes in at 81.20, then 79.20.

Here is the current chart.

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