Sep Wheat - Steady
Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Higher
Nov Beans - Steady to 1 Lower
Well, I thought there wouldn't be anything to talk about today, due to the thin trading in the grains. Roger hit the nail on the head when he mentioned that there wouldn't be much trading today.
2 things struck me today: lack of trading in corn and wheat. September Wheat printed a 9 cent range and December Corn marked a 4.75 cent range - eerily quiet, almost like the trade is holding it's breath.
2nd thing: New crop soybeans was up 11 cents today - not a huge up day, but decisively higher. Then September Beans were negative 3.75 today. A huge move for the September/November soybean spread for 1 trading day - anomalous.
Roger went on to mention that for the most part, traders have decided their positions prior to today, and some would wait on the sidelines. Evidently some large traders became concerned, at the last minute, that the USDA bean number will come in low. I don't know for sure.
It is as though large traders and/or end users suddenly realized that the new crop is not in the bin yet. Not that I have witnessed everything under the sun, but today was peculiar, nonetheless.
With regard to August and September soybeans, maybe the end users are all stocked up for now and some September bean traders thought there was more upside risk for the new crop - getting out of September longs and rolling to the November contract.
This is speculation - just trying to reason through everything. Back to December Corn. It appeared almost all market participants have previously decided their play going into tomorrow.
Today in corn and to a degree in wheat, it reminds me of the financial markets when they are waiting for a news release, just trading a few ticks back and forth. Both December Corn and September Wheat traded an ID/NR 7 days today.
This is an inside day that is the most narrow day of the previous 7 trade days. I had to look back to March 17th to find a day that was this small ranged. Therefore, very narrow.
This implies that tomorrow will be a large reaction to the report, because tremendous energy was built today and for the last several days. It is as though the pressure in a balloon has come to the breaking point.
December Corn's reaction tomorrow could be big up or down, big down then up, or big up then down. Even though I am leaning higher for tomorrow, not many folks know exactly what numbers will be printed tomorrow.
Take a look at December Corn's range today.
Perhaps November Beans were giving a head nod today trading up +11 cents. I don't know for sure. Beans rallied up to test the Sunday night intraday gap down and found resistance there, for now, backed off a little and were quiet the rest of the day.
Here is the 1 hour November Soybean chart, so we can see the gap detail.
October Live Cattle update:
Cattle have been unable to print new highs since July 14th, and instead have been marking a ledge/triangle. Therefore this pattern is probably a spike and ledge. Also backing this theory up is that the sellers were waiting at the old previous high close (you will see it on the chart) - this provided resistance last Friday.
Then today, cattle marked a lower high - the traders were unable to test last Friday's high. Therefore, there's more probability an important high price is in place. Take a look at this informative article about the spike and ledge pattern.
Check out the October Cattle pattern.
I talked with a crop adjuster friend today who covers several counties in southern Minnesota. He said the thing that sticks out to him this year is the variation in cob length within 1 row.
Some are 40 kernels long and some are only 28 kernels in the same row. Last year, he stated, there was some variation in yields county to county and some field to field, but nothing like this.