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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 7/11/23

Sep Wheat - Steady to 1 Lower

Dec Corn - 1 Higher

Nov Beans - Steady

From yesterday's December Corn comments:

"The bears may initially test the low of today at 494.50 first, but the close tomorrow should be in the positive."

After testing the low of 494.50 in December Corn today, it was able to close positive by 2 pennies, painting an outside higher close bar. The high and low are beyond yesterday's high/low and it closed higher. This action is considered bullish.

Any edge the chart analyst can get is helpful for managing risk, as yesterday's ID/NR7 day and today's outside higher close bar.

Corn's close was also about 5 cents from last week's close - keeping the weekly in mind. Considering Tomorrow's supply/demand report, corn has quite a bit of stored energy available for use. Here is today's December Corn.

Because November Soybeans is technically strong and the trade expects a small yield reduction on an already tight balance sheet, it rallied to close up +14.75 cents today. Check out the November bean daily chart and how price is working its way back to the neckline.

I have been told that the July USDA supply/demand report yield estimate is based on June temperatures and rainfall. Are crop conditions involved. Don't know for sure. I do believe the June 30th harvested acres will factor in because the USDA adjusted harvested acres on last July's report based on the quarterly acreage report the last business day of June last year.

They did not lower yield last July I believe because there were several pockets of above normal rainfall across the belt. Here is the June 2023 and 2022, respectively, rainfall across the corn belt as a percentage of average.

Will the USDA reduce yield in corn and/or soybeans tomorrow? Judge for yourself. The orange color is less than 50% and the red color is less than 25%. Green and blue are greater than 100%. This year's map is first.

Here is the link to this water weather site:

September Wheat has marked a higher low this week compared to last week. Is the A-B-C (Big2) correction complete? And has Big3 up impulse now begun? Maybe. I have marked it as such on the wheat chart. See what you think while looking at the continuation 8 hour Wheat chart.

August Crude Oil has managed a steady, stair stepping rally since June 28th, from the C leg terminus. Oil has rallied from about 67 to 74.81. The most likely scenario is that this uptrend is a new impulse and not part of the big correction, therefore we should continue to see higher prices.

Here is the updated crude oil 4 hour chart.


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