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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 6/5/23

July Wheat - 2 to 3 Lower

July Corn - 3 to 4 Higher

July Beans - 1 to 2 Higher

I'm not 100%, but I believe July continuation soybean meal has completed a complex down correction that has been going on since the February 13th high - almost 4 months in duration.

The correction is called a double 3. It's 2 A-B-C waves connected by another leg named the X-wave. If the weather market really heats up, July Soymeal could rally to test that February high at the 508 level.

Before that possibility however, it will retrace back up to 50% retracement, or even 62%. These Fibonacci percentages are at the price of 447 and 462. There are some swing highs in the 470-471 area which could also be tested. Check out the current July Soymeal chart.

We are going to take a look at the Eurocurrency market which trades the opposite of the US Dollar, and of course also affects the grain trade to some degree. The Euro has been in an uptrend since last September.

It has recently marked an A-B-C sideways correction, and most likely will continue it's uptrend, putting pressure on the US Dollar. Since we are bullish the grains, a resumption of the dollar downtrend will be supportive.

On the chart, you will see an old high to the left around 1.23 - this is a target a bit more long term (weeks to months). Here is the updated Eurocurrency chart.

July Crude Oil tested the high of the corrective range it's been in on last night's opening. In fact, crude gapped up over 3 bucks and then sold off to fill the gap. This is telling us that oil is not ready to trade above $75.00 yet.

In the near term, crude oil could sell off back to 70, then we will see if the bulls can come back. The main point here is it's not ready to test the higher target in the 83.50 area. Check out today's 4 hour crude chart with the huge down selling (red) candlestick from last night.

July Wheat made it up to our first little upside target last night and today, then traded sideways. It could be an inverted head and shoulders where wheat corrects down to 600, or price could break up and continue to rally from here - we should know in the next day or so.

Support is from 615 down to 600. Here's today's 4 hour wheat chart.

We will dive back into the corn and soybean charts tomorrow. However, July Soybeans traded sideways today, remaining above support at 1340. July Corn was somewhat weaker today and corrected down below support. 595 was the low and corn closed at 597. If 595 doesn't hold, lower support comes in near 591-590.

Roger and I wanted to show you folks a precipitation map from the National Weather Service. It shows history from yesterday, 2 weeks, 30 days, etc, all the way out to a year. You can also look at percentage of normal rainfall over a certain time period.

I was looking at the last 2 weeks and last 30 days percentage of normal/average - these maps caught my eye and shows how dry it is over most of the corn belt. This particular map is the last 2 weeks of normal precipitation across the US. I am going to also post the link so you can play around with the map and input particular parameters.

This map is % normal rain for the last 2 weeks.

Down at the bottom of this slide, you can change the parameters you want to see. There is also a toggle bar to change the brightness of the colors to see the state lines better or to see more color. Here is the NOAA website:


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