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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 6/15/22

July Wheat - Steady

July Corn - 1 to 2 Higher

Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Lower

July Soybeans - 1 to 2 Higher

November Soybeans has a more clear breakout from it's 3.5 month ascending triangle than July's does with it's back and forth range. This doesn't mean that Nov will continue to lead the entire time. July and Nov beans trade together as they push and pull off of each other.

You will see what I am saying while looking at the Nov bean chart below. Please notice the triangle breakout point and the area now where the funds are buying to defend this breakout.

I am expecting higher prices into next week as beans are at the 35-38 day cycle window for a pivot back up - this may occur starting tomorrow or not until next week. However, both Novie and July beans made dojis for the daily bar. This tells me tomorrow is likely to be an up day.

Also notice the 124 cent length of apex (triangle). You add this on to the breakout point to get a price projection. This gives you 124 + 1534 (breakout point) = 1658.

From Yesterday: "Both corns made another doji today (open/close very close-small range), so tomorrow it should continue up." July Corn was up +6.25 today while Dec lagged behind. The 714 area continues to be good support for Dec Corn. When it begins another leg up after storing up enough energy during this sideways trade, will be be targeting 740 then 757.

I was talking to a colleague today and remembered the 849 Dec Corn high from 2012. With any hint of a weather scare I think 849 is a magnet/target for mid/later summer. Right now in time I believe this is more likely than Dec stopping for good at the 766.25 high. But, we still take it a day at a time, and see what's going on then.

Do not know if I have ever clearly described the time rule of charts. The weekly chart is a bigger, more influential force than daily/intraday, in that order. Even though the daily has had down corrections the last 30-90 days in corn and beans the weekly trend is very strongly up in all grains.

More on the trend. Remember Corn and Beans traded sideways from October 2014 till the fall of 2020. That's about 6 years. Remember the time symmetry comments last weekend about the beans weekly chart? It went up for 16 bars so the 16 bar sideways action in beans should allow an uptrend to continue. The grains have been in an uptrend for 21 months to 2 years depending on where you start the rally (low or breakout point). Therefore, they are more likely to continue an uptrend for 4-6 years total (2-4 more) than 2 years. These markets built up 6 years worth of energy.

July and Sep Wheat sold off 13-14 cents out of the triangle then rallied back to close to even on the day. I think this is a downside fakeout to trap more shorts.

July Crude Oil Update: today's low of 114.60 is good support on the Crude continuation chart. We are likely to be rangebound between 114-124 for several days or a week. Therefore, we have up and down opportunities. First resistance comes in about 119.50.

1 Comment

Aaron Lorch
Aaron Lorch
Jun 16, 2022

Speaking of the importance of time rule and how the grains like timing symmetry... You've mentioned multiple times that June 16-17 has been your next timing target for a swing high in July soybeans (and corn), but now it seems it could end up looking like a buy point (albeit not a swing low)? Could you explain this change a little more, or am I misunderstanding? Is this swing different in that it's more sideways and doesn't need to "end" with the high for the move before new direction unlike the previous downward swing)? Or... Am I misunderstanding, and you still think Friday could be a swing high/good sell for producer (before ultimately going higher later with energy, in you…

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