Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 6/14/22
July Wheat -Steady
July Corn - Steady to 2 Lower
Dec Corn - 1 Higher
July Soybeans - Steady
Do you remember my comments about corn and wheat June 1 and June 3 (see 6/1 and 6/3 comments) ? -about the huge, definitive high volume that occurred on June 1 low and the subsequent small range the next 2 days.? Corn has already started trending higher but the wheat is marking a triangle (lower highs, higher lows).
I am looking at a buy/long, holding for a few weeks in Sep Wheat, with an entry somewhere between 1060-1090. My target is a few weeks out in time at 1400 or higher. Please see the Sep Wheat triangle on this 1 hour bar (candlestick) chart.
July and Dec Corn have been in a range for 3 days building energy to go higher. Both corns made another doji today (open/close very close-small range), so tomorrow it should continue up.
All I am going to say about July beans is I have never seen a significant low area NOT hold when the peak volume is in the middle of the day like yesterday (in 25 years). In my mind a low within 5-8 cents of Monday's low is absolute.
If it trends down in beans from here (1700-1695 area) down below the trendline from yesterday's chart, the seasonal high is set and producers should sell, sell. However, it seems to me that the market cannot afford much lower prices considering the 2021 ending stocks projection. Let me be clear. I do not think this is the case (sell off) but nothing is 100% if only 90% -95%.
July Crude Oil Update: From yesterday : "(can it test 117 on the low side or 123 on the high side?)" The answer is yes, both!! The high today was 123.68 this morning, the low was 116.62 a few hours later. I hope folks took advantage.
Volatility is picking up (energy is being released) for a bigger move perhaps both ways because of the FOMC news release tomorrow. I anticipate resistance around 120.50 and selling as far down as 110.
Stock Market comment: I am leaning towards Sunday night's gap being an exhaustion gap. I am expecting some relief buying tomorrow. There were some indications today that buying occurred in the broader equities market.
The stock market has been dreading this rate hike business (selling off 41.6% down from the high since the covid low), so maybe it will buy the fact - getting the tangible event of a hike out of the way. T-bonds and notes have been selling off hard as well into this news announcement. I think the saying is - buy the rumor, sell the fact or sell the rumor, buy the fact. Stay tuned.