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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 5/17/23

July Wheat - 1 to 2 Lower


July Corn - Steady


July Beans - Steady to Mixed


The most difficult thing about technical analysis is that it is very SIMPLE. Not easy, but simple. Very difficult yet simple and basic. As you know, I zoomed out yesterday to find that old gap from last summer in soybeans, in order to determine where the selling would stop.


Well, today's price action told me to keep looking bigger/more zoomed out. A glance at the weekly soybeans showed me that the trade has to selloff to last summer's low to fulfill the pattern - 1288.5, at least, maybe a few more cents.


I felt the panic begin today, especially in beans - the beginning of capitulation. Today's close at 1333 is 48 cents above last summer's low. Can that happen in 1 day in beans? Yes. We will watch tomorrow and I believe by Friday we have some clarity in beans.


I had to come to terms with the fact that the up move from last July till this February was a corrective up move where the trend was still down instead of up - Not an impulsive rally as many of us thought.


The rally from the 2020 lows until last spring's high was roughly 2 years in duration. Then the correction which began in April for corn and June for soybeans has been 1 year give or take a month - the correction being roughly one half of the time of the up impulse. Markets like to adhere to Fibonacci ratio's and other simple ratios such as 1/2 or 2, .38, .62.


Therefore, we will be looking for outstanding/peak trading volume with the probable selling in July Soybeans tomorrow. A selloff to 1288 would also make a nice double bottom (simple). Check out the soybean continuation (July) chart.


A client reminded me about a very old gap in Soybean Oil today - 2.3 years old. It is tiny looking on the continuation chart, but it's there. This gap was completely filled today and a gap that old is completed big business - bigger than one that's only a few months old.


Check out the front month Soybean Oil chart going back over 2 years.


The July Corn continuation is also working on a big double bottom and had to selloff today to reach last summer's low. Corn will either make a slightly lower low tomorrow, or not go any lower.


Therefore, I believe we have to look at all the trading since last April in corn and last June in beans as a huge A-B-C correction. The 4 hour corn chart volume was heavy today. Check out the corn big picture first, followed by the 4 hour volume chart.


Take a look at the relative high volume on the 4 hour corn chart today, indicating capitulation.


On the right side is the July Corn trade ladder or dome. You can see the sell orders above in red, and the buy orders below in green.


July Chi Wheat did not make a lower low today, and I still believe it does not have to, but we gotta get through tomorrow. July KC Wheat reached an upper preliminary price target today. Hopefully you'll remember the KC chart from a couple weeks ago. Check today's KC chart - it's a big expanding triangle/broadening bottom that should eventually breakout higher.


June Crude oil found support at the top support line and appears to be working higher from there. See what you think on the 4 hour crude chart - remember this?



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