May Wheat - Steady to 1 Higher
May Corn - Steady to 1 Lower
May Beans - 1 to 2 Lower
May Wheat has mainly been marking time since the 724 swing high it printed on March 29th. We have a 2 legged correction or A-B-C working and I believe that a right shoulder to an inverted head and shoulders pattern is forming.
Naming the last few days of trade a right shoulder or a 2 legged correction are both correct - there are different ways to describe market action. The 680 support was violated by 5 cents to 675, but this does not invalidate the probable bottom forming.
The left shoulder is near 661 and while I don't believe wheat will trade to that level, we could see 671 before the pattern is complete. You will see the 671 support line on the May Wheat chart below.
The 649 support level held for practical purposes in May Corn today - it made a slightly lower low, then it rallied - this is what corrections do where the 2nd leg is a little lower.
I have labeled the lengths of the 2 up legs so far - 1st one was 32 cents and wave 3 (2nd one) was 45 cents. It is a good sign for the bulls when the 2nd up leg is an extension of the 1st. We should begin rallying again tomorrow for the wave 5 up, but in the event that doesn't happen, the next support is the top of the first leg at 638.
If the next up leg is a slight extension of the 3rd (45 cents), say 55 cents long, this will then get us close to the next target higher at the 695 to 700 level. See if you can count the 1-2-3-4 on the May Corn chart. Hint - 4 is the current correction from the 668 high down to today's low.
May Soybeans also continued to consolidate or trade back and forth today. This weeks corrective action is responding to the bumps on the left which are labeled. Run your eyes from right to left at let's say the price of 1515 and I believe you will see what is being described.
Remember the chart rule of thumb - straight on the left begets straight on the right. Bumps on the left begets bumps on the right. Sometimes the bumps on the right are slightly below the bumps on the left as in the correction on March 29th-30th.
In the current correction, the swing points (bumps) are more level with the left, and other times they (the bumps on the right) can be above the bumps on the left. Either way it is always action-reaction - this fact is guaranteed. Another tech analyst described it this way, 'everything matters', meaning the left always influences the right.
I do not expect the bean correction to trade any lower at this point, but if it does, 1496, the next lower red line will have buyers waiting. Here is today's May Bean 4 hour chart for you to review - see if you can spot the things described here.
May Crude Oil also continued consolidating today between 81.00 and 79.7. At this point in time, it doesn't appear that crude will sell down to 78.00. This is a unique time on a chart when a large gap occurs - there was a quantum shift in supply so large that no traders wanted to participate between the prices of 75.72 and 79.00.
I will cover the November Soybean and December Corn charts on the weekend.