Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 3/6/23
May Wheat - 1 Higher
May Corn - Steady
May Beans - 2 to 3 Lower
April Crude Oil has managed to maintain an uptrend within the larger sideways channel it's been trading in. Today crude was up +0.83 to 80.52 at the time of this writing. There will be some resistance in the 81 to 82 area.
Because the rally since February 23rd has been methodical with very regular stair steps, Crude Oil will likely only pause at the 81-82 level, then continue on to 94. Here's the updated April Crude chart.
Although I feel like May Wheat is trying to form a good low, it sold off below the support line today. We will have to wait and watch the price action over the next 2 days to get an idea as to whether the traders are setting a bear trap. We will need a close at 713 or better to confirm a bottom. Check out today's chart.
May Soybeans continued it's rally today, completing 9 waves up (Big 1) of 56 cents in length. This rally began last Tuesday night. At this juncture, we are due for a small correction which will be counted as Big 2. Because the legs up seem more like an impulse than a correction higher, beans are more likely to mark another leg higher (Big 3) which is a minimum of 56 cents, but more likely to be 77 (1.38 of Big 1) or 84 cents higher (1.5 of Big 1).
The main reasons beans appear to be in an impulse are that the number of waves is 5 or 9 instead of 3 or 6. Also, this rally retraced 82% back up from the selloff, not .38, .5 or .62, which is a more reasonable retracement range if beans were going to mark another leg lower. Bean's has a wide range of support, between 1524-1511. Check out today's 1 hour May bean chart, noting the wave counts.
May Soybean Meal led the oilseed complex strength today, closing 12.70 higher on the day. The May chart marked new contract highs today and the meal continuation chart closed it's gap down from the contract roll of March to May.
Not only did soymeal close the gap, it settled above the bottom of the gap. This leads me to believe we won't have much of a backfill or pullback. The close today was 494.00 and the top of the gap is 490.10, therefore 490.10 will act as support.
Take a look at the meal continuation daily.
Soymeal's relative strength will aid the soybean up move as well.
May Corn floundered today and was unable to mount any kind of rally. This is not alarming. Corn is having to build out this base formation called a spike and ledge, to build the correct amount of energy to produce a rally.
This is not a matter of if, but when? The support of the ledge is 10 cents above the spike low which should not have to be tested. Also notice on the chart how the last few days price is rotating around an old low. Here is today's 2 hour May Corn.
The March S&P is finally starting the Big #5 leg higher, with a rally that began last Friday. Check out the updated S&P chart.
October Natural Gas offered a nice long entry today, correcting and closing just below the lower support line at 3.25. This is a zoomed in 4 hour chart.