May Wheat - 3 to 4 Higher
May Corn - Steady to 1 Lower
May Beans - 2 to 3 Lower
We are looking at an 8 hour May Corn chart today so that we can see 2 old lows from January. These levels are targets, support and possible resistance levels. You will see them on the chart. Support is now 646 and the next target higher is the 2nd (from left to right) old low at 660.
May Wheat over shot the 720 target today, by 4 cents to 724. This over reaching is common in commodities because a plethora of buy stops lies above swing highs, in general. In our case here, buy stops galore between 720.25 and 724 - This is an area where the professional day and swing traders go short for a 10 or 20 cent profit.
Wheat still managed a 5 cent gain for the day, despite the 20 cents of backfilling. Support now comes in at 698.50 and 695 and 724 becomes light resistance. Once 724 is cleared, it will most likely be fast and furious to the next target at the 810 level, which is another old swing high. Check out today's action and lines that are affecting price movement on the 2 hour May Wheat chart.
May Soybeans settled and backfilled intraday after trading a few ticks above the 1478 target today. 1470 may hold for support, however, beans could also backfill to the 1461 level. This has been a fairly extended up move with 9 waves (complete up impulse for the smallest wave) so this leg could be complete and it is possible the sellers take it down to 1440 temporarily. The next target higher is from 1497 to 1515 and a deeper backfill is more likely from the higher level.
I hate to put out so many possibilities, but May Beans are at an important pivot point. However, because this is such a steady, methodical (stairstepping) bull move, there is the argument for very little backfill. Often times, stable bull markets do not ever backfill much because they take care of business a little bit at a time and don't necessarily need to revisit areas. This type of gentle price action tends to leave traders on the sidelines who are waiting to buy lower - and then there is the wildcard on Friday.
My gut says no deeper than 1461. See what you think from the 2 hour May Bean chart.
The most recent up leg in May Crude Oil is about 7.40 bucks long and the first leg was 7.25. The most likely next step is a pullback to 71.67 (high of 1st leg) and then a rally to 78.00. Check out today's crude action and see if you can spot what I am talking about.
コメント