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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 3/22/23

May Wheat - Steady

May Corn - 1 Higher

May Beans - Steady to 1 Lower

New crop November Soybeans tested the lower breakaway gap from last summer's low and subsequent rally during today's trade. That gap runs from 1273.75 to 1269.25 and today's low was 1270.50, only 5 ticks (1.25 cents) from closing it.

The partial gap fill was probably enough to say that this business is complete, or very close. Because today was an outright rout in the soybean complex, we have to tread lightly.

However, the volume was very strong in the May, July and November contracts, leading me to believe that there was capitulation today - a low is here or very near. Another reason I can't believe we are going to have more of a downtrend is that the May/July Bean spread was up another 4.75 cents today, indicating strong or very strong demand.

There is a new trendline drawn on the November bean chart running across December 2021 lows and July 2022 lows and it intersected very close to today's low. You will see it here on the Nov Bean daily chart, along with the heavy daily volume bar at the bottom.

I was completely faked out by Monday's false low in May Soybeans, but because of this and other factors, I can see a pretty substantial up move brewing over the next few weeks and/or months - sellers were frothy today. FYI soybeans is the most emotionally unstable of the grains, hence you get these wild swings.

Remember a couple of weeks ago I mentioned how Corn and beans are now in motion (shaken from slumber), probably down and up? - when they broke down from their ranges? The main point being that the sideways consolidation is over and that highs above the recent ranges are very likely. It is not as likely to simply trade back into the range and go sideways again. A rule of physics.

Is today's pattern a spike and ledge low on the 15 minute May Soybeans? It looks like one but we will need tonight and tomorrow for confirmation. Notice the first 5 high volume bars at the bottom of the chart. See what you think.

May Corn, in fact did mark another small down leg close to 622 to form an A-B-C correction as it consolidated below 638. Check it out on today's corn chart.

The May Wheat washed all the new longs out the last 2 days and marked a new, very high volume low of 654 during today's session. For market participants who hedge or trade short term, the support and resistance levels can be good places for protective stops (a bit below or above, of course) - the 692 support for wheat is an example.

Also, today's low in May Wheat is close to the July 2021 low of 647.25 - the point here is the chart is responding to long term data - think big picture. Therefore, once a low is confirmed, it should remain in place for a good while - months/2 years. Here is today's May Wheat 4 hour chart featuring the spike low in price and heavy volume bar. The 15 minute wheat chart is similar to May Beans today with the spike/ledge formation.

May Crude Oil almost made it up to the 72.25 resistance level today. However, there appeared to be fairly heavy selling between 71.31 and 70. I count nine waves up on the 30 minute chart, so a pullback to 68 would not surprise. Here is the 1 hour crude chart with a few possible support lines drawn in blue.

I don't know for sure, but we could be in a macro cycle low point on charts. There are several commodities that seem to be either carving out long term lows, accelerating up or starting another leg up (down in the US Dollar).

I thought it was interesting because the S&P chart traded down to a blue support line today on the Fed news. We will see if this line at 3965 is good buying support or is a pivot point for prices to sell off to below 3900.


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