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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 3/21/23

May Wheat - 1 to 2 Lower

May Corn - Steady

May Beans - Steady to 1 Higher

May Corn tested the neckline up above at 638 today, then backed off a few pennies to 629. 622 below is possibly still in play for a test. Other than that, corn is just taking care of business consolidating to build energy for higher prices. Here is today's 2 hour May Corn chart with the inverted head & shoulders target labeled.

While it was down hard today along with May Soybeans, the May/July Soybean spread has continued to soar. It broke higher from a wedge on March 15th, tested the breakout 2 days later, then continued up. The spread marked a contract high of 21.25 today then closed at 18 cents. Check it out here.

While I believe May bean funds began some serious buying yesterday, as in enough to call an end to the correction, support at 1472 was violated today and yesterday's low of 1462 is likely to be tested.

You would think the strong May bean bull spread referenced above indicates strength in the May contract, but we will have to see. I discovered an old downtrend line (marked "this line") that beans broke up from yesterday, which was tested today on the downside.

Does it provide support? Don't know for sure. However, the C leg (most recent down leg) is 1.23X the first leg down - this is exactly on a popular Fibonacci ratio and should have value. Take a look at the May Bean 4 hour chart and, along with the spread chart, decide what you think.

Today closed directly on the 62% Fibonacci backfill level in May Wheat today. This level is 12 cents below the support price I stated yesterday. Today's close is also on an old low marked with a red line, and should provide some buying support, but confidence is only mild here, not over the top.

There are still some macro crosscurrents happening which is affecting all financial markets, although the equity and crude markets were strong today. Check out the current wheat chart.

I heard a valuable story from an elite trader who was helping me. He was arguing with his mentor that a particular price level was solid support and that it should be a very reliable place to buy. His mentor said "watch this" and he sold 2000 contracts (can't remember the commodity) at the market and price blew 10 cents below the students support level. Anything can happen - we are never absolutely certain what a market will do despite how accurate the technical analysis is.

May Crude Oil is attempting to rally through the first resistance point of the earlier breakdown near 70 bucks. Support is 68 and next resistance is 72.25. So far it is doing what I suspected. Let's see if the buying shakeout can continue. Here is today's chart.


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