Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 2/23/23
March Wheat - 1 Higher
March Corn - Steady to 1 Higher
March Beans -
On this mornings tidbits, Roger said to "expect the markets to jump around today." March and May Corn certainly jumped, off a cliff, that is. What we do not know for sure is this actually a downtrend beginning or could it be a fakeout/breakout to the downside?
Remember the 263 cent triangle that projects that same amount one way or the other from 675. The downside projection would be $4.12 - hard to imagine. The upside projection would be $9.38 - almost also hard to fathom.
We know for sure that corn is in motion starting today - there will be a trend. The narrow/sideways trade of late is done. The breakout confirms this part whether it's down or up. The selloff today found support at the top of last summer's range exactly (July & August) - 685.50 - this is the exact price of last July 11th's, high tick.
Markets like to re-visit the edges of old price ranges, but rarely slice all the way through them unless an extreme supply/demand condition exists. Therefore this level is important support.
An anomaly occurred in March and May corn today that gives us some good information. The clue offered by corn today was a huge intraday volume bar that occurred on the 11:15-11:30 15 minute bar at the end of the first leg of the selloff. March Corn sold 4 more cents below this low. Almost always, the peak volume happens on the open or closing bar.
This phenomena can happen on the low price or a couple of cents above it. The volume spike is a capitulation of sell stops getting hit. When it occurs, the market is telling us "this is an important low", so I'm thinking today was a fakeout. We will know probably by tomorrow.
Here is the 15 min volume bar, followed by the daily continuation so you can see the details and the July 11th bar. My overall take that today was/is a prime buying opportunity. See what you think.
March Wheat held it's ground today by not marking a lower low than yesterday.
As expected, a good amount of fund buyers showed up when March Soymeal marked a third intraday low today. The close was positive for the day and the low was above last Friday's low and the daily chart painted an almost Doji where the open/close is very close. I don't know for sure, but today's low has a fair chance of holding for a new upleg to begin. See what you see.
To a lessor extent, the buyers showed up in March Beans as well, right near the bottom of the gap. For all the grains, tomorrow's close will be important. I'm expecting buying to prevail, but we'll see. The bean continuation chart showed how price remained inside of the narrowing triangle.
I will have more bean, wheat and crude details over the weekend.