Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 2/13/23
March Wheat - 1 to 2 Lower
March Corn - Steady
March Beans - Steady to 1 Higher
There was follow through fund buying in March Soybean Meal today that took prices up to 504. We are looking at the weekly meal chart today going all the way back to the high prices of 541 in 2012.
The March Meal marked an intraday gap up last night which was not filled during the day session while the December contract of meal marked a day gap up which also stayed open. The day bar gap means there was no overlap of prices and the intraday gap shows a gap up from Friday's close to last night's low.
They are both valid breakaway gaps if not filled in the next day or two. Looking at the weekly meal chart (big picture), we have a targets of 541 (2012 high) and 621. The higher one is derived using the distance from the July 2022 lows near 375 to the recent high of 494. You will see the most recent low back to the most recent highs on the chart is about 126 bucks.
You tack on 126 to the 494 high + 126 = 621. We are assuming the upside breakout is valid unless proven otherwise this week. Check out the weekly meal chart noting the areas mentioned.
March Soybeans was able to remain above the triangle it broke up from last Friday despite heavy selling pressure at the new highs of 1555.50. Today looked like a small A-B-C correction. See if you can spot this from today's price action on the chart.
Hint: the first low printed overnight is the A point and the high of 1555.50 this morning is B. Support is 1533, very close to the triangle top near today's close and resistance is now 1566 and 1582. Check out the 2 hour chart showing how beans closed on the top of the small triangle.
Here is a follow up November Soybean chart showing the uptrend in motion. Support is 1376 and there is light resistance just up from today's high at 1394 then a target higher of 1411, the top blue up sloping line.
March Wheat had some follow through buying today as well, closing up +4.25. The lows sit just on the downtrend line labeled on the chart and wheat closed up above the neckline - progress not perfection.
Here is the updated 4 hour March Wheat chart - you'll notice the lengths of the up legs are labeled 25 & 36. If the 3rd (5th wave) up leg follows the same Fibonacci ratio as the 2nd leg (36 divided by 25 + 1.44X), our next target is 827. This is in between the 820 and 834, the previously mentioned targets.
The fund bulls also dominated today in March Corn and it broke out to the upside from that 6 day expanding triangle. Current support is 680 and resistance is first at 689, then 694. Here is the updated March Corn daily.
Support in March Crude Oil is currently at 78.00 to 78.30 and less likely - 76.00. Resistance is still hovering around 81.25-82.00. I count 5 waves going up since the 72 & change low, with the A-B legs complete of an A-B-C- correction . Therefore, I am looking for a down C leg to 76.30. Here is the updated crude chart.
I was a day early on the March S&P rally. The funds waited the weekend out to pounce and the buy leg which began today is the start of the big 5 wave or 3rd up leg. I will have a projection/target for #5 later in the week. Here is today.
